CARG CarGurus, Inc.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JMP Securities upgraded CARG to Market Outperform from Market Perform on June 7, 2024, with a $30 price target — essentially in-line with the current $30.04 price. The call is part of a cluster of 4 firms acting on CARG, but JMP is the only one upgrading. Consensus is heavily bullish: 13 Buy/Strong Buy vs 7 Hold, 0 Sell. The mean target is $37.09, implying 23% upside. JMP has a 70% accuracy rate on 10 calls with a 13.8% average return, ranking as a top-tier firm on this name. EPS revisions are mixed but slightly positive: 4 up vs 2 down over 30 days for the current fiscal year. Insider sales in April 2026 (C-suite selling ~$430K total) are a weak bearish signal, but institutional buying is strong — Morgan Stanley added 25.8% and Bank of America added 28.9%. Short interest is elevated at 65% of float, a potential squeeze catalyst. Bottom line: a low-conviction upgrade from a decent firm, but the stock is already at the PT and the cluster action is tepid. Traders should wait for a pullback or a higher PT before acting.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is bullish: 6 Strong Buy, 7 Buy, 7 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell (20 analysts total). The majority (65%) are Buy/Strong Buy, with 35% at Hold. No bearish voices. JMP's upgrade from Market Perform to Market Outperform moves them from the Hold camp to the Buy camp, aligning with the bullish consensus.
Current price: $30.04. Mean target: $37.09 (implied upside +23.5%). Median: $37.00. High: $43 (Needham). Low: $32 (DA Davidson). JMP's $30 PT is the lowest among all analysts and is below the current price — effectively a neutral call. This is a contrarian low target relative to consensus.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-11 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $35.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | UBS | maintain | Neutral | $37.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | JP Morgan | maintain | Neutral | $38.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Needham | maintain | Buy | $43.00 |
| 2026-02-24 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $38.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | $34.00 |
| 2026-02-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Neutral | $33.50 |
| 2026-02-20 | BTIG | maintain | Buy | $37.00 |
| 2026-02-05 | Needham | maintain | Buy | $37.00 |
| 2025-12-30 | BTIG | maintain | Buy | $44.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades. EPS revisions: mixed but slightly positive. For the current fiscal year (0y), 4 revisions up vs 2 down over 30 days. For next fiscal year (+1y), 4 up vs 2 down. The current quarter (0q) saw 4 up vs 1 down. Estimates are being revised higher modestly, supporting the bullish consensus but not strongly.
Firm Track Record — JMP Securities
JMP Securities accuracy: 53% on 1750 calls | avg return: 5.9%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 11 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DA Davidson | 100% | 3/3 | 25.3% | top tier |
| B. Riley Securities | 100% | 2/2 | 18.7% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 100% | 4/4 | 15% | top tier |
| UBS | 75% | 3/4 | 11.2% | top tier |
| RBC Capital | 75% | 3/4 | 10.4% | top tier |
| Needham | 71% | 5/7 | 4.9% | top tier |
| JMP Securities | 70% | 7/10 | 13.8% | top tier |
| JP Morgan | 67% | 4/6 | 12.3% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 67% | 2/3 | 8.7% | top tier |
| BTIG | 67% | 2/3 | 16.2% | top tier |
JMP Securities has a 70% accuracy rate on 10 calls on CARG with a 13.8% average return — top-tier on this name. Best-performing firms: DA Davidson (100% on 3 calls, +25.3% avg return), B. Riley (100% on 2, +18.7%), Oppenheimer (100% on 4, +15%). Worst: Jefferies (33% on 3, +0.5%). JMP's upgrade is from a strong firm, but the PT is the lowest — suggesting limited conviction on upside.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $2.90 | $2.69 — $3.06 | $1.1B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.61 | $0.59 — $0.64 | $250.1M | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.63 | $0.59 — $0.66 | $257.4M | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0y | $2.50 | $2.36 — $2.58 | $1.0B | ↑4 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades: 4 sales in April 2026 totaling ~$431K from C-suite (Sarnoff Dafna, Quinn Matthew Todd, Hanson Jennifer Ladd). These are routine sales (not clustered, moderate size) — weak bearish signal per academic literature. Institutional changes: strong buying — Morgan Stanley added 25.8% ($43.6M), Bank of America added 28.9% ($17.8M), FMR added 61.5% ($1.2M), Norges Bank new position ($4M). Renaissance trimmed 35.7% ($12.2M). Short interest: 65% of float (426K shares short) — extremely high, a potential squeeze catalyst. The institutional buying and high short interest converge with the bullish analyst consensus, but insider sales diverge weakly.
Actionable Insight
This is a low-conviction upgrade from a good firm — the PT is at the current price, so no immediate upside. The high short interest (65%) and strong institutional buying create a squeeze setup, but the analyst signal alone is not a trigger. Wait for a higher PT or a pullback before entering.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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May 28, 2026
12d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $30.35 $27.25 | ▼ −10.21% | ▼ −10.17% | $27.51 (−9.36%) |
|
May 16, 2026
24d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $26.19 $25.42 | ▼ −2.94% | ▼ −4.57% | $27.51 (+5.04%) |
|
Apr 22, 2026
6w ago
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DEFA14A
| $37.48 $36.67 | ▼ −2.16% | ▼ −3.64% | $27.51 (−26.60%) |
|
Apr 20, 2026
7w ago
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Press Release
| $37.86 $36.95 | ▼ −2.40% | ▼ −3.49% | $27.51 (−27.34%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
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ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $36.21 $37.48 | ▲ +3.51% | ▲ +2.52% | $27.51 (−24.03%) |
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Apr 2, 2026
9w ago
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144
| $33.33 $34.15 | ▲ +2.46% | ▼ −1.16% | $27.51 (−17.46%) |
US Market Status
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