C CITIGROUP INC

BULLISH Impact: 3/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-C-jpmorgan-20251212
6 firms acted on C: Jefferies, JP Morgan, Freedom Broker, Truist Securities, Barclays, Keefe, Bruyette & Woods
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
C ▼ -5.56% at T+60d
LONG call ✗ call lost -5.56% · α vs SPY -3.30% · entry $111.81 → $105.59
Last close $133.28 (close Jun 8) · +19.21% from $111.81 entry
Entry anchored
Dec 12, 09:15 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+0.89%
call +0.89% · α +1.03%
$112.80
settled 6mo ago
T+5d
+2.69%
call +2.69% · α +2.90%
$114.82
settled 6mo ago
T+20d
+4.03%
call +4.03% · α +2.27%
$116.32
settled 5mo ago
T+60d
-5.56%
call -5.56% · α -3.30%
$105.59
settled 3mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

JP Morgan upgraded Citigroup (C) from Neutral to Overweight on Dec 12, 2025, raising its price target from $107 to $124. The upgrade was part of a six-firm cluster — Jefferies, Freedom Broker, Truist Securities, Barclays, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also acted on C. JP Morgan's new PT is below the current price of $127.98 and sits well below the consensus mean of $142.59, making this a relatively cautious upgrade. Consensus remains heavily bullish: 26 Buy ratings (including 8 Strong Buy) vs. 5 Hold and none Sell among 31 analysts. The mean target implies 11.4% upside, with a high of $162 and low of $125. JP Morgan's track record on C is thin (50% accuracy on 2 calls), but the broader cluster includes higher-accuracy firms like Truist (75% on 8) and Barclays (75% on 4). EPS estimates are being revised higher — 11 upward revisions for the current fiscal year in the last 30 days with zero downgrades. Insider selling persists, but short interest is elevated at 28.3%, and congressional buying adds a contrarian tailwind. The bottom line: a bullish signal from a strong cluster, though JP Morgan's below-consensus PT and high short interest warrant monitoring.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+1
Final Score
3/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
26 (84%)
Hold
5
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
22
Mean PT
$142.59
Median PT
$143.00
High PT
$162.00
Low PT
$125.00
Current Price
$127.98
Implied Upside
+11.4%

Consensus is heavily bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell among 31 analysts. Buy-side ratings account for 83.9% of all coverage, with zero bearish calls. The consensus direction is resolutely positive.

Current price: $127.98. Consensus mean: $142.59. Median: $143.00. High: $162.00. Low: $125.00. Implied upside to mean: +11.4%. JP Morgan's $124 PT is below the current price (–3.1% downside) and is the only target below the consensus low of $125, making it the most bearish among active analysts.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-30 JP Morgan maintain Overweight $135.50
2026-04-29 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $162.00
2026-04-15 Morgan Stanley maintain Overweight $144.00
2026-04-15 Goldman Sachs maintain Buy $151.00
2026-04-15 Piper Sandler reiterate Overweight $145.00
2026-04-15 Keefe, Bruyette & Woods maintain Outperform $140.00
2026-04-15 Oppenheimer maintain Outperform $144.00
2026-04-15 Evercore ISI Group maintain In-Line $139.00
2026-04-15 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $160.00
2026-04-15 Barclays maintain Overweight $154.00

30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades outside this cluster, but the cluster itself is a significant burst of positive action. EPS revision momentum is strong: current fiscal year EPS has been revised up 11 times in the past 30 days with zero downgrades (from $10.31 to $10.81). Next fiscal year shows 7 upward vs. 2 downward revisions.

Firm Track Record — JP Morgan

JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5703 calls | avg return: 5.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
TD Cowen 100% 2/2 13% top tier
Oppenheimer 83% 10/12 13.1% top tier
Wells Fargo 80% 4/5 6.6% top tier
Morgan Stanley 75% 9/12 9.4% top tier
B of A Securities 75% 6/8 10.9% top tier
Barclays 75% 3/4 7.5% top tier
Truist Securities 75% 6/8 16.3% top tier
Evercore ISI Group 67% 4/6 6.4% top tier
Goldman Sachs 63% 5/8 5.1% top tier
Piper Sandler 63% 5/8 8.6% top tier

JP Morgan has a 50% accuracy rate on only 2 scored calls on C, with an average return of +18.4% (small sample). By comparison, top-tier firms like TD Cowen (100% on 2), Oppenheimer (83% on 12), and Wells Fargo (80% on 5) have far stronger track records. Within the cluster, Truist (75% on 8) and Barclays (75% on 4) offer higher reliability.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 13, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y $10.81 $10.37 — $11.32 $93.2B ↑11 ↓0
0q $2.57 $2.35 — $2.76 $23.2B ↑3 ↓0
+1q $2.67 $2.45 — $2.97 $23.1B ↑2 ↓0
+1y $12.40 $11.25 — $13.13 $96.1B ↑8 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Maria Elvira Salazar (republican) — buy $15,001 - $50,000
Congressional
Maria Elvira Salazar (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Jonathan Jackson (democrat) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-33.3%)
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
CAUSEWAY CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC — trim (-30.1%)
Short Interest
Short: 846,972 | Exempt: 519 | Total: 2,995,664 | Ratio: 28.3%

Insider trades are bearish — multiple executives sold shares between Feb-Apr 2026, totaling >$10M. Institutional activity is mixed: BofA trimmed 33% (still holds $3.05B), Norges Bank opened a new $2.8B position, but Renaissance Technologies exited entirely. Short interest is elevated at 28.3% (total short vs. float). Congressional trading is bullish — three politicians (Salazar, Jackson, Mullin) bought shares in Feb-Mar 2026. The analyst cluster diverges from insider selling but converges with congressional buying and institutional inflows.

Actionable Insight

The six-firm analyst cluster provides a strong bullish signal, but JP Morgan's below-market PT and 28% short interest create near-term uncertainty. Traders should watch for price to reclaim and hold above the $125 consensus low before adding long exposure.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

9 reports for C
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for C — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 31, 2026
9d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 2/10
$111.81 $116.32▲ +4.03%▲ +2.27%$133.28 (+19.21%)
May 1, 2026
5w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$111.81 $116.32▲ +4.03%▲ +2.27%$133.28 (+19.21%)
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 5/10
$131.62 $126.44▼ −3.93%▼ −9.98%$133.28 (+1.26%)
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$131.62 $126.44▼ −3.93%▼ −9.98%$133.28 (+1.26%)
Apr 10, 2026
8w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$124.30 $129.09▲ +3.86%▼ −4.67%$133.28 (+7.23%)
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
Institutional Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$111.42 $107.24▼ −3.75%▲ +4.19%$133.28 (+19.62%)
Feb 26, 2026
14w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$116.20 $112.38▼ −3.29%▲ +3.11%$133.28 (+14.70%)
Jan 22, 2026
19w ago
Court Ruling
BULLISH ★ 5/10
$115.61 $116.02▲ +0.35%▲ +0.30%$133.28 (+15.29%)
Dec 4, 2025
26w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$106.74 awaiting T+20awaiting T+20$133.28 (+24.86%)
Showing 9 of 9

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