C CITIGROUP INC
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JP Morgan upgraded Citigroup (C) from Neutral to Overweight on Dec 12, 2025, raising its price target from $107 to $124. The upgrade was part of a six-firm cluster — Jefferies, Freedom Broker, Truist Securities, Barclays, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods also acted on C. JP Morgan's new PT is below the current price of $127.98 and sits well below the consensus mean of $142.59, making this a relatively cautious upgrade. Consensus remains heavily bullish: 26 Buy ratings (including 8 Strong Buy) vs. 5 Hold and none Sell among 31 analysts. The mean target implies 11.4% upside, with a high of $162 and low of $125. JP Morgan's track record on C is thin (50% accuracy on 2 calls), but the broader cluster includes higher-accuracy firms like Truist (75% on 8) and Barclays (75% on 4). EPS estimates are being revised higher — 11 upward revisions for the current fiscal year in the last 30 days with zero downgrades. Insider selling persists, but short interest is elevated at 28.3%, and congressional buying adds a contrarian tailwind. The bottom line: a bullish signal from a strong cluster, though JP Morgan's below-consensus PT and high short interest warrant monitoring.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 8 Strong Buy, 18 Buy, 5 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell among 31 analysts. Buy-side ratings account for 83.9% of all coverage, with zero bearish calls. The consensus direction is resolutely positive.
Current price: $127.98. Consensus mean: $142.59. Median: $143.00. High: $162.00. Low: $125.00. Implied upside to mean: +11.4%. JP Morgan's $124 PT is below the current price (–3.1% downside) and is the only target below the consensus low of $125, making it the most bearish among active analysts.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | JP Morgan | maintain | Overweight | $135.50 |
| 2026-04-29 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $162.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Morgan Stanley | maintain | Overweight | $144.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Goldman Sachs | maintain | Buy | $151.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Piper Sandler | reiterate | Overweight | $145.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Keefe, Bruyette & Woods | maintain | Outperform | $140.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $144.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $139.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $160.00 |
| 2026-04-15 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $154.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades outside this cluster, but the cluster itself is a significant burst of positive action. EPS revision momentum is strong: current fiscal year EPS has been revised up 11 times in the past 30 days with zero downgrades (from $10.31 to $10.81). Next fiscal year shows 7 upward vs. 2 downward revisions.
Firm Track Record — JP Morgan
JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5703 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TD Cowen | 100% | 2/2 | 13% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 83% | 10/12 | 13.1% | top tier |
| Wells Fargo | 80% | 4/5 | 6.6% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 75% | 9/12 | 9.4% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 75% | 6/8 | 10.9% | top tier |
| Barclays | 75% | 3/4 | 7.5% | top tier |
| Truist Securities | 75% | 6/8 | 16.3% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 67% | 4/6 | 6.4% | top tier |
| Goldman Sachs | 63% | 5/8 | 5.1% | top tier |
| Piper Sandler | 63% | 5/8 | 8.6% | top tier |
JP Morgan has a 50% accuracy rate on only 2 scored calls on C, with an average return of +18.4% (small sample). By comparison, top-tier firms like TD Cowen (100% on 2), Oppenheimer (83% on 12), and Wells Fargo (80% on 5) have far stronger track records. Within the cluster, Truist (75% on 8) and Barclays (75% on 4) offer higher reliability.
Earnings Estimates
Next earnings: Jul 13, 2026
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $10.81 | $10.37 — $11.32 | $93.2B | ↑11 ↓0 |
| 0q | $2.57 | $2.35 — $2.76 | $23.2B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| +1q | $2.67 | $2.45 — $2.97 | $23.1B | ↑2 ↓0 |
| +1y | $12.40 | $11.25 — $13.13 | $96.1B | ↑8 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades are bearish — multiple executives sold shares between Feb-Apr 2026, totaling >$10M. Institutional activity is mixed: BofA trimmed 33% (still holds $3.05B), Norges Bank opened a new $2.8B position, but Renaissance Technologies exited entirely. Short interest is elevated at 28.3% (total short vs. float). Congressional trading is bullish — three politicians (Salazar, Jackson, Mullin) bought shares in Feb-Mar 2026. The analyst cluster diverges from insider selling but converges with congressional buying and institutional inflows.
Actionable Insight
The six-firm analyst cluster provides a strong bullish signal, but JP Morgan's below-market PT and 28% short interest create near-term uncertainty. Traders should watch for price to reclaim and hold above the $125 consensus low before adding long exposure.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
May 31, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $111.81 $116.32 | ▲ +4.03% | ▲ +2.27% | $133.28 (+19.21%) |
|
May 1, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $111.81 $116.32 | ▲ +4.03% | ▲ +2.27% | $133.28 (+19.21%) |
|
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $131.62 $126.44 | ▼ −3.93% | ▼ −9.98% | $133.28 (+1.26%) |
|
Apr 15, 2026
8w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $131.62 $126.44 | ▼ −3.93% | ▼ −9.98% | $133.28 (+1.26%) |
|
Apr 10, 2026
8w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $124.30 $129.09 | ▲ +3.86% | ▼ −4.67% | $133.28 (+7.23%) |
|
Feb 28, 2026
14w ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $111.42 $107.24 | ▼ −3.75% | ▲ +4.19% | $133.28 (+19.62%) |
|
Feb 26, 2026
14w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $116.20 $112.38 | ▼ −3.29% | ▲ +3.11% | $133.28 (+14.70%) |
|
Jan 22, 2026
19w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $115.61 $116.02 | ▲ +0.35% | ▲ +0.30% | $133.28 (+15.29%) |
|
Dec 4, 2025
26w ago
|
Court Ruling
| $106.74 awaiting T+20 | awaiting T+20 | — | $133.28 (+24.86%) |
US Market Status
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