BTU PEABODY ENERGY CORP

BEARISH Impact: 7/10 8-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 5, 2026 Processed 1mo ago SEC 0001064728-26-000022
8-K Item 2.02: Earnings release
Latest settled — T+20d
BTU ▲ +18.48% at T+20d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -18.48% · α vs SPY -13.53% · entry $25.00 → $29.62
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Currently $27.40 · -9.60% from $25.00 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 4, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-0.16%
call +0.16% · α +1.54%
$24.96
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-1.32%
call +1.32% · α +3.30%
$24.67
settled 5w ago
T+20d
+18.48%
call -18.48% · α -13.53%
$29.62
settled 10d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 7w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Peabody reported a weak Q1 2026 with a GAAP net loss of $32.4M (-$0.27/diluted share) vs. $34.4M profit ($0.27/share) a year ago, as Adjusted EBITDA fell 43% to $82.5M. The Seaborne Metallurgical segment swung to an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.0M due to Centurion commissioning delays, which also forced a cut to full-year met coal volume guidance from 3.5M to 2.5M tons. While thermal segments exceeded volume expectations, the core earnings miss and the significant Centurion setback dominate the narrative and are bearish for the stock.

Actionable Insight

The Centurion ramp delay is the key negative catalyst — the 1.0M ton cut to 2026 met coal guidance and the push-out of the longwall move signal that the mine's contribution to free cash flow is at least a year behind schedule. Monitor Q2 2026 results for evidence that commissioning is complete and production is ramping toward full rates. The stock is likely to trade down on the earnings miss and guidance cut; watch for any analyst downgrades or price target revisions.

Key Facts

  • Q1 2026 GAAP net loss of $32.4M (-$0.27/diluted share) vs. net income of $34.4M ($0.27/diluted share) in Q1 2025.
  • Adjusted EBITDA fell 42.7% to $82.5M from $144.0M in the prior-year quarter.
  • Seaborne Metallurgical segment reported an Adjusted EBITDA loss of $7.0M, including an ~$80M impact from Centurion commissioning issues.
  • Centurion full-year 2026 volume guidance cut to 2.5M tons from the original 3.5M tons; longwall move pushed to early 2027.
  • Revenue was $973.3M, up 3.9% from $937.0M in Q1 2025, but operating profit swung to a loss of $44.2M from a profit of $31.9M.
  • Operating cash flow from continuing operations fell 74.6% to $30.6M from $120.5M in Q1 2025.
  • Cash and cash equivalents declined to $492.5M from $575.3M at year-end 2025.
  • Quarterly dividend maintained at $0.075 per share.

Financial Impact

Q1 net loss of $32.4M vs. prior-year profit of $34.4M; Adjusted EBITDA down $61.5M YoY; Centurion delays reduce 2026 met coal volume by 1.0M tons (~$138M in potential revenue at current realizations).

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Risk Factors

  • Further delays or cost overruns at Centurion could erode the mine's projected $2.1B NPV.
  • Seaborne Metallurgical costs per ton of $141.72 exceeded revenue per ton of $138.28, indicating negative margins that could persist if commissioning issues continue.
  • Declining cash balance ($492.5M vs. $575.3M) and reduced operating cash flow ($30.6M) limit financial flexibility.
  • Coal price volatility, particularly in seaborne thermal and met markets, could further pressure earnings.

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Bituminous Coal & Lignite Surface Mining
Analyst Consensus
73% bullish (11 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 7 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001064728-26-000022
Document: btu-20260505.htm0001064728-26-000022
Document: btu8k20260505ex992.htm0001064728-26-000022
Document: 0001064728-26-000022-index-headers.html0001064728-26-000022
Document: 0001064728-26-000022-index.html0001064728-26-000022
Document: 0001064728-26-000022.txt0001064728-26-000022
8-K Data (Synthetic)0001064728-26-000022
6 reports for BTU
Performance horizon
Filters
Rows
Reports for BTU — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 2, 2026
10d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$29.62 $30.11▲ +1.65%▲ +2.35%$27.40 (−7.49%)
May 29, 2026
15d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$27.05 $29.06▲ +7.43%▲ +7.17%$27.40 (+1.29%)
May 28, 2026
16d ago
8-K
MIXED ★ 6/10
$29.10 $27.05▼ −7.04%▼ −7.28%$27.40 (−5.84%)
May 5, 2026
5w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$25.00 $24.96▲ +0.16%▲ +1.54%$27.40 (−9.60%)
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$30.18 $27.71▼ −8.18%▼ −8.76%$27.40 (−9.21%)
Mar 26, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$39.50 $35.68▼ −9.67%▼ −9.31%$27.40 (−30.63%)
Showing 6 of 6

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (48h 46m)

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