BMY BRISTOL MYERS SQUIBB CO

MIXED Impact: 2/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-BMY-ubs-20260107
13 firms acted on BMY: RBC Capital, Barclays, UBS, B of A Securities, Guggenheim, Piper Sandler, Goldman Sachs, Jefferies, Wolfe Research, Leerink Partners, Citigroup, Bernstein, Barclays
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
BMY ▲ +4.59% at T+60d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +4.59% · α vs SPY +9.05% · entry $56.71 → $59.31
Currently $57.13 · +0.75% from $56.71 entry
Entry anchored
Jan 7, 10:20 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.43%
call -1.43% · α -1.41%
$55.90
settled 5mo ago
T+5d
+0.55%
call +0.55% · α +0.42%
$57.02
settled 5mo ago
T+20d
+4.48%
call +4.48% · α +6.22%
$59.25
settled 4mo ago
T+60d
+4.59%
call +4.59% · α +9.05%
$59.31
settled 2mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

UBS upgraded Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY) from Neutral to Buy on January 7, 2026, raising its price target from $46 to $65, a 41% increase. The upgrade was part of a 13-firm analyst cluster, but UBS's own track record on BMY is weak (50% accuracy on 2 calls). Consensus is cautious: 53% of 36 analysts rate it Hold or Sell, with a mean target of $63.04 (4% upside from $60.59). Meanwhile, EPS estimates are being revised lower — 11 downgrades vs 5 upgrades for the current quarter over the past 30 days. Insider selling, institutional trims by FMR and Renaissance, and a short interest ratio of 59.3% point to bearish sentiment. The upgrade offers a contrarian bullish catalyst, but the fundamental headwinds and high short interest create a mixed outlook. Next earnings are due July 30, 2026, providing a potential trigger for volatility.

Impact Score

Base Score
3/7
LLM Adjustment
-1
Final Score
2/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
15 (42%)
Hold
19
Sell / Strong Sell
2
Total Analysts
25
Mean PT
$63.04
Median PT
$64.00
High PT
$75.00
Low PT
$40.00
Current Price
$60.59
Implied Upside
+4%

Among 36 analysts tracking BMY: 6 Strong Buy, 9 Buy (42% bullish), 19 Hold (53%), 2 Sell (6%). The consensus is heavily tilted toward Hold, reflecting uncertainty about the company's growth trajectory. UBS's upgrade shifts one vote from Neutral to Buy but does not change the overall cautious consensus.

Mean price target is $63.04, median $64, high $75 (Piper Sandler), low $40 (from a single analyst). Current price of $60.59 implies +4% upside to the mean. UBS's $65 target is slightly above the mean and median, placing it in the upper half of the range but well below the high of $75.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-04-09 B of A Securities maintain Buy $67.00
2026-04-08 Guggenheim reiterate Buy $72.00
2026-04-08 Cantor Fitzgerald maintain Neutral $54.00
2026-03-17 HSBC maintain Hold $60.00
2026-02-25 RBC Capital initiate Sector Perform $60.00
2026-02-23 Piper Sandler maintain Overweight $75.00
2026-02-20 Barclays initiate Overweight $75.00
2026-02-06 Citigroup maintain Neutral $64.00
2026-02-06 Wells Fargo maintain Equal-Weight $60.00
2026-02-06 Guggenheim maintain Buy $72.00

Zero analyst upgrades or downgrades were recorded in the 30 days prior to the trigger (data as of January 7). EPS revision momentum is negative: the current quarter has 5 upward revisions vs 11 downward over the last 30 days, and the next quarter has 5 up vs 10 down. Estimates for the current fiscal year are seeing 8 up vs 12 down. The trend suggests earnings pressure is building.

Firm Track Record — UBS

UBS accuracy: 55% on 5083 calls | avg return: 4.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 10 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Jefferies 100% 3/3 10.4% top tier
Goldman Sachs 100% 2/2 10.3% top tier
TD Cowen 100% 2/2 17.5% top tier
BMO Capital 80% 4/5 10.2% top tier
Cantor Fitzgerald 80% 4/5 6.7% top tier
Morgan Stanley 67% 2/3 0.6% top tier
UBS 50% 1/2 1.2% below average
Citigroup 40% 2/5 6.4% below average
Barclays 40% 2/5 16.9% below average
Wells Fargo 25% 1/4 -2% below average

UBS has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,083 calls overall with average return of 4.6%. However, its BMY-specific record is weak: 1 correct out of 2 calls (50% accuracy, avg return 1.2%). Among covering firms, Jefferies, Goldman Sachs, and TD Cowen have 100% accuracy on 2-3 calls each; BMO Capital and Cantor Fitzgerald are at 80%. UBS's accuracy on BMY is below the peer average.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 30, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $1.42 $1.23 — $1.53 $10.9B ↑2 ↓0
+1q $1.64 $1.55 — $1.76 $12.0B ↑2 ↓0
0y $6.31 $6.27 — $6.35 $47.5B ↑3 ↓0
+1y $6.14 $5.34 — $6.97 $46.1B ↑2 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 1 sells
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
ARIEL INVESTMENTS, LLC — new
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — trim (-35.8%)
Short Interest
Short: 1,840,575 | Exempt: 2,735 | TRF Vol: 3,101,602 | Short Ratio: 59.3% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider trading: Director Elkins David V sold $1.57M worth of shares on April 1, 2026. Institutional activity: Norges Bank appeared both as a new position ($1.95B) and an exit (data discrepancy), while FMR trimmed 36.5% and Renaissance trimmed 35.8% of their holdings. Short interest stands at 59.3% of free float, indicating extreme bearish positioning. No congressional trades were reported. Insider selling and institutional trimming diverge from the bullish analyst upgrade, while the short ratio suggests potential for a squeeze if sentiment turns.

Actionable Insight

The UBS upgrade provides a tactical bullish signal, but the weight of negative EPS revisions, insider selling, and heavy short interest argues for caution. Traders should watch for a short squeeze above $65 if momentum builds, but the trend favors waiting for a clearer fundamental catalyst — such as the July 30 earnings report — before adding long exposure.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

4 reports for BMY
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for BMY — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 31, 2026
12d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$56.71 $59.25▲ +4.48%▲ +6.22%$57.13 (+0.75%)
May 1, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$56.71 $59.25▲ +4.48%▲ +6.22%$57.13 (+0.75%)
Mar 25, 2026
11w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$59.39 $58.71▼ −1.15%▼ −11.81%$57.13 (−3.80%)
Feb 26, 2026
15w ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$61.08 $59.39▼ −2.77%▲ +3.63%$57.13 (−6.46%)
Showing 4 of 4

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (45h 28m)

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