BMI BADGER METER INC

NEUTRAL Impact: 5/10 8-K
Horizon months Filed May 21, 2026 Processed 24d 23h ago SEC 0001193125-26-233404
8-K context-dependent: Items 7.01
Latest settled — T+5d
BMI ▲ +3.39% at T+5d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +3.39% · α vs SPY +1.54% · entry $119.84 → $123.90
Next anchor: T+20d in 7d
Last close $131.73 (close Jun 12) · +9.92% from $119.84 entry
Entry anchored
May 21, 2026
via day open
T+1d
+5.01%
call +5.01% · α +4.56%
$125.84
settled 24d ago
T+5d
+3.39%
call +3.39% · α +1.54%
$123.90
settled 17d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 7d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

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Executive Summary

Badger Meter hosted its 2026 Investor Day on May 21, 2026, presenting a comprehensive strategic and financial update. The company highlighted its $917M in 2025 sales, a 17% CAGR from 2020-2025, $218M in EBITDA (24% margin), and guided to a multi-year outlook of 6-8% organic revenue growth, 39-42% gross margins, and 25-30% EBITDA incrementals. Management emphasized an expanding TAM driven by the digital transformation of the water sector, a large pipeline of awarded AMI projects (~2.6M-3.6M connections), and a capital allocation program including $115M remaining on its buyback authorization. The filing is an investor day presentation with forward-looking commentary but no new hard financial guidance or earnings release — it reinforces the long-term investment thesis without changing near-term fundamentals.

Actionable Insight

The investor day presentation reinforces Badger Meter's long-term secular growth narrative in smart water but introduces no new near-term catalysts beyond the already-known project pipeline. The 6-8% organic revenue CAGR target is in line with historical execution. Watch for 2H 2026 milestone deployments from the PRASA (1.6M connections) and Utility 2 (330K turnkey) projects — delays or accelerations there would be the next material catalyst. The $115M buyback provides a valuation floor but is not a near-term driver. The stock's ~25% T+20 win rate in the model's past reports suggests the narrative alone is insufficient to move shares — wait for actual execution data.

Key Facts

  • 2025 sales of $917M, a 17% CAGR from 2020-2025
  • 2025 EBITDA of $218M at 24% margin
  • 120% free cash flow conversion in 2025
  • Guided to 6-8% organic revenue CAGR over 5 years
  • Targeting 39-42% gross margins in current environment
  • Targeting 25-30% EBITDA incrementals and 10-15% EPS growth
  • ~2.6M-3.6M awarded meter connections to deploy over multiple years starting 2H 2026
  • $115M remaining on share repurchase authorization
  • 33 consecutive years of dividend increases (11% CAGR since 1992)
  • SaaS revenue targeted to reach 11-12% of sales by 2030+
  • Smart water market TAM estimated at ~$25B annually globally

Financial Impact

No new financial results reported. The filing provides long-term targets but no changes to current-year guidance. Major multi-year deployment pipeline valued at ~$500M+ in M&A dry powder referenced.

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Risk Factors

  • Multi-year project deployments may face pacing delays from utility planning cycles and labor constraints
  • Tariff pressures and input cost inflation (copper, tin, resins) could pressure gross margins below the 39-42% target range
  • Turnkey vs. supply-only project mix can distort near-term revenue comparisons
  • Forward-looking statements and long-term targets are not guidance — execution risk is real

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Totalizing Fluid Meters & Counting Devices
Analyst Consensus
59% bullish (17 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 5 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
8-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-233404
Document: bmi-20260521.htm0001193125-26-233404
Document: 0001193125-26-233404-index-headers.html0001193125-26-233404
Document: 0001193125-26-233404-index.html0001193125-26-233404
Document: 0001193125-26-233404.txt0001193125-26-233404
8 reports for BMI
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for BMI — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$130.58 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$131.73 (+0.88%)
May 21, 2026
24d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$119.84 $123.90▲ +3.39%▲ +1.54%$131.73 (+9.92%)
Apr 28, 2026
6w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$117.47 $123.34▲ +5.00%▲ +1.89%$131.73 (+12.14%)
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$120.89 $118.42▼ −2.04%▼ −3.13%$131.73 (+8.97%)
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$120.89 $118.42▼ −2.04%▼ −3.13%$131.73 (+8.97%)
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
Insider Cluster
MIXED ★ 6/10
$120.89 $118.42▼ −2.04%▼ −3.13%$131.73 (+8.97%)
Apr 17, 2026
8w ago
8-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$115.54 $121.83▼ −5.44%▼ −4.89%$131.73 (−14.01%)
Mar 13, 2026
13w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$151.86 $153.83▲ +1.30%▲ +3.34%$131.73 (−13.26%)
Showing 8 of 8

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