BLD TopBuild Corp.

MIXED Impact: 7/10 PRESS-RELEASE
Horizon weeks Filed May 5, 2026 Processed 1mo ago Wire GlobeNewswire
Press release: earnings
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
BLD ▼ -5.06% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✗ call lost -5.06% · α vs SPY -10.02% · entry $428.78 → $407.07
Next anchor: T+60d in 7w
Last close $399.03 (close Jun 8) · -6.94% from $428.78 entry
Entry anchored
May 5, 2026
via day open
T+1d
+2.37%
call +2.37% · α +0.98%
$438.93
settled 5w ago
T+5d
-2.80%
call -2.80% · α -4.78%
$416.79
settled 29d ago
T+20d
-5.06%
call -5.06% · α -10.02%
$407.07
settled 7d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 7w

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Executive Summary

TopBuild reported Q1 2026 GAAP diluted EPS of $3.73, a 23.5% beat vs the $3.64 consensus, on revenue of $1.446B, slightly above the $1.41B consensus. However, organic same-branch sales declined 7.1% (volume -5.5%, price -1.6%), adjusted operating margin compressed from 15.7% to 12.3%, and the stock faces significant uncertainty from the pending QXO acquisition announced April 19.

Key Financial Metrics

Free Cash Flow
$146.7M
Gross Margin
27.7%

Actionable Insight

The EPS beat is overshadowed by deteriorating organic trends (same-branch sales -7.1%, margins compressing) and the pending QXO acquisition. Traders should focus on QXO deal details (price, financing, regulatory timeline) as the primary catalyst — the standalone earnings story is secondary. Monitor for any QXO-related 8-K filings or merger proxy statements.

Key Facts

  • GAAP diluted EPS $3.73 vs consensus $3.64 (beat by 2.5%)
  • Revenue $1.446B vs consensus $1.41B (beat by 2.6%)
  • Total sales grew 17.2% YoY, entirely from acquisitions (24.3% M&A contribution); organic same-branch sales declined 7.1%
  • Same-branch residential sales fell 10.9% YoY; same-branch commercial/industrial sales fell 0.8%
  • Adjusted operating margin compressed to 12.3% from 15.7% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin fell to 16.5% from 19.0%
  • Adjusted EBITDA grew only 1.6% YoY despite 17.2% revenue growth, implying near-zero incremental margins (1.8%)
  • Net income declined to $104.8M from $123.4M YoY; GAAP operating profit fell to $175.0M from $177.5M
  • Company announced definitive agreement to be acquired by QXO on April 19, 2026
  • Completed 4 acquisitions YTD adding $83.8M in annual revenue; signed agreement for 5th ($6M)
  • Operating cash flow improved to $160.7M from $152.6M YoY; no share repurchases in Q1 2026 vs $215.6M in Q1 2025

Financial Impact

EPS beat of $0.09 (2.5%) and revenue beat of ~$36M (2.6%) are positive, but organic decline and margin compression are negative. The QXO acquisition at an undisclosed price overhangs the stock.

epsrevenueoperating marginorganic growthdebt

Risk Factors

  • Pending QXO acquisition creates uncertainty around standalone valuation and deal terms
  • Organic same-branch sales declining 7.1% signals underlying weakness in residential end markets
  • Adjusted operating margin compression from 15.7% to 12.3% YoY despite acquisition-driven revenue growth
  • Near-zero incremental EBITDA margin (1.8%) suggests acquired businesses are diluting profitability
  • Interest expense more than doubled to $36.6M from $16.6M YoY, pressuring net income

Market Snapshot

Exchange
NYSE
Sector
Construction - Special Trade Contractors
Analyst Consensus
59% bullish (17 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 press release from GlobeNewswire.

DocumentAccession Number
PRESS-RELEASE Data (Synthetic)press-3287467
26 reports for BLD
Performance horizon
57% Hit rate 8 of 14 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +22.72%Apr 7, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for BLD — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 4/10
$438.93 $408.84▲ +6.86%▲ +8.03%$399.03 (+9.09%)
Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 3/10
$438.93 $408.84▲ +6.86%▲ +8.03%$399.03 (+9.09%)
Jun 4, 2026
5d ago
425
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$405.25 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$399.03 (−1.53%)
Jun 4, 2026
5d ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 4/10
$405.25 awaiting T+5awaiting T+5$399.03 (−1.53%)
May 29, 2026
11d ago
DEFM14A
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$412.19 $401.82▼ −2.52%▲ +0.23%$399.03 (−3.19%)
May 21, 2026
19d ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
MIXED ★ 3/10
$469.92 $435.15▼ −7.40%▼ −8.48%$399.03 (−15.09%)
May 16, 2026
24d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$404.33 $443.31▲ +9.64%▲ +7.72%$399.03 (−1.31%)
May 11, 2026
29d ago
425
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$424.63 $406.29▼ −4.32%▼ −4.23%$399.03 (−6.03%)
May 6, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$438.93 $416.79▲ +5.04%▲ +6.17%$399.03 (+9.09%)
May 6, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
BEARISH ★ 2/10
$438.93 $416.79▲ +5.04%▲ +6.17%$399.03 (+9.09%)
Showing 10 of 26

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