BLD TopBuild Corp
Price Chart
Executive Summary
JP Morgan double-downgraded TopBuild Corp (BLD) from Overweight to Neutral on April 21, 2026, raising its price target slightly to $496 from $487. The downgrade is a contrarian call relative to consensus, where 59% of analysts rate BLD a Buy (10 of 17). JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,703 calls with an average return of 5.6%, placing it near the middle of firms covering BLD. The stock currently trades at $406.29, implying 17% upside to the consensus mean target of $475.30. Momentum is bearish: two downgrades in the past 30 days (Loop Capital and DA Davidson also cut to Hold/Neutral), and EPS revisions over 30 days are tilted downward (5 down vs 3 up for the current quarter). No insider trades or congressional activity are reported, but institutional buying is strong — Morgan Stanley added 55.5% to its position and UBS added 51.9%. The bottom line: JP Morgan's downgrade aligns with a broader analyst shift, but heavy institutional accumulation and a still-bullish consensus create a mixed signal for traders.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus: 59% Buy (3 Strong Buy, 7 Buy), 41% Hold (7 Hold), 0% Sell. Based on 17 analysts. Direction is bullish overall, but the recent downgrades are eroding that tilt.
Price targets: mean $475.30, median $490.50, high $520, low $433. Current price $406.29 implies 17% upside to the mean. JP Morgan's $496 PT is above the mean and median, ranking in the upper third of the range.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Loop Capital | downgrade | Hold | $485.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | DA Davidson | downgrade | Neutral | $437.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $496.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $407.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-27 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $433.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
30-day analyst activity: 0 upgrades, 2 downgrades (Loop Capital and DA Davidson both cut to Hold/Neutral). EPS revisions over 30 days are mixed but slightly negative: current quarter saw 3 up vs 5 down; next quarter saw 4 up vs 4 down; full-year 2026 saw 3 up vs 4 down. Estimates are being revised lower on balance.
Firm Track Record — JP Morgan
JP Morgan accuracy: 55% on 5703 calls | avg return: 5.6%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | -7% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 16.7% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 67% | 2/3 | 18.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 60% | 6/10 | -1.6% | above average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 2/4 | 3.3% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -1.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 2/4 | 1.4% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 40% | 2/5 | 7.7% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/3 | -13.5% | below average |
JP Morgan has a 55% accuracy rate on 5,703 calls with an average return of 5.6%, placing it in the middle of the pack. Top-performing firms on BLD include Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls), Loop Capital (67% on 3 calls), and Stephens & Co. (67% on 3 calls). Jefferies has the worst record at 0% on 3 calls.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0q | $4.80 | $4.65 — $5.06 | $1.5B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $5.14 | $4.58 — $5.48 | $1.6B | ↑5 ↓0 |
| +1y | $20.98 | $18.69 — $23.51 | $6.3B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0y | $18.20 | $17.07 — $19.34 | $6.1B | ↑3 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional activity reported. Institutional buying is strong: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% ($193M), UBS added 51.9% ($96.5M), and Norges Bank initiated a $105M position (though later exited). This institutional accumulation diverges from the analyst downgrade trend, suggesting smart money is betting against the bearish analyst consensus.
Actionable Insight
The analyst downgrade cluster is a headwind, but heavy institutional buying provides a bullish counter-signal. Traders should watch for price stabilization above $400 — if institutional demand absorbs selling pressure, BLD could re-rate toward the $475 mean target.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $393.59 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $411.08 (+4.44%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $411.08 (+6.34%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
9d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $411.08 (+6.34%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
425
| $405.25 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $411.08 (+1.44%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
10d ago
|
8-K
| $405.25 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $411.08 (+1.44%) |
|
May 29, 2026
16d ago
|
DEFM14A
| $412.19 $401.82 | ▼ −2.52% | ▲ +0.23% | $411.08 (−0.27%) |
|
May 21, 2026
24d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $469.92 $435.15 | ▼ −7.40% | ▼ −8.48% | $411.08 (−12.52%) |
|
May 16, 2026
29d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $404.33 $443.31 | ▲ +9.64% | ▲ +7.72% | $411.08 (+1.67%) |
|
May 11, 2026
4w ago
|
425
| $424.63 $406.29 | ▼ −4.32% | ▼ −4.23% | $411.08 (−3.19%) |
|
May 6, 2026
5w ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $416.79 | ▲ +5.04% | ▲ +6.17% | $411.08 (+6.34%) |
US Market Status
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