BLD TopBuild Corp
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Loop Capital double downgraded TopBuild Corp (BLD) from Buy to Hold on May 6, 2026, setting a $485 price target. The firm has a strong track record on BLD, with 67% accuracy on 3 calls and a 16.7% average return, placing it among top-tier analysts. The consensus is mixed: 8 Buy (42%), 9 Hold (47%), 0 Sell, with a mean target of $473.80 implying 16.6% upside from the current $406.31. The downgrade aligns with recent bearish momentum — DA Davidson also downgraded to Neutral on the same day, and JP Morgan downgraded to Neutral on April 21. EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have seen 3 upward revisions but 5 downward revisions over the past 30 days, signaling caution. Institutional activity is mixed: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% to its position, while Norges Bank exited entirely. No insider trades or congressional activity are reported. The double downgrade from a high-accuracy firm is a significant contrarian signal against the still-majority Buy consensus, warranting attention.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is split: 3 Strong Buy, 5 Buy (42% total Buy), 9 Hold (47%), 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 17 analysts. The consensus leans cautious, with nearly half at Hold, but still a majority at Buy. The downgrade from a top-tier firm shifts the balance further toward neutral.
Mean target is $473.80, median $490.50, high $505, low $433. Current price $406.31 implies 16.6% upside to mean. Loop Capital's $485 PT is above the mean but below the median, placing it in the upper half of the range. The implied upside is still positive but reduced from prior levels.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Loop Capital | downgrade | Hold | $485.00 |
| 2026-05-06 | DA Davidson | downgrade | Neutral | $437.00 |
| 2026-04-21 | JP Morgan | downgrade | Neutral | $496.00 |
| 2026-04-20 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $465.00 |
| 2026-04-13 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | In-Line | $407.00 |
| 2026-04-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $475.00 |
| 2026-04-07 | Seaport Global | downgrade | Neutral | — |
| 2026-03-18 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | — |
| 2026-02-27 | RBC Capital | maintain | Sector Perform | $433.00 |
| 2026-02-27 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $525.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades prior to this cluster. However, on May 6 alone, two downgrades hit: Loop Capital (Buy→Hold) and DA Davidson (Buy→Neutral). EPS revisions are mixed: current fiscal year has 3 upward revisions but 5 downward revisions in the past 30 days, with the average EPS estimate declining slightly from $18.20 to $18.20 (flat). The trend is cautious.
Firm Track Record — Loop Capital
Loop Capital accuracy: 54% on 645 calls | avg return: 4.4%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seaport Global | 100% | 2/2 | -7% | top tier |
| Loop Capital | 67% | 2/3 | 16.7% | top tier |
| Stephens & Co. | 67% | 2/3 | 18.8% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 60% | 6/10 | -1.6% | above average |
| Benchmark | 50% | 2/4 | 3.3% | below average |
| Goldman Sachs | 50% | 1/2 | -1.4% | below average |
| Truist Securities | 50% | 2/4 | 1.4% | below average |
| DA Davidson | 40% | 2/5 | 7.7% | below average |
| Jefferies | 0% | 0/3 | -13.5% | below average |
Loop Capital has 67% accuracy on 3 BLD calls with a 16.7% average return, ranking as top tier. The best-performing firm on BLD is Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls, -7% avg return), while Jefferies is worst (0% on 3 calls, -13.5% avg return). Loop's strong track record adds weight to this downgrade.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +1y | $20.93 | $18.69 — $23.51 | $6.3B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0y | $18.20 | $17.07 — $19.34 | $6.1B | ↑3 ↓0 |
| 0q | $4.80 | $4.65 — $5.06 | $1.5B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $5.13 | $4.58 — $5.48 | $1.6B | ↑0 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
No insider trades or congressional activity reported. Institutional activity is divergent: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% ($193M) and UBS added 51.9% ($96M), while Norges Bank exited entirely. No short interest data available. The institutional buying partially offsets the bearish analyst signal, creating a mixed cross-platform picture.
Actionable Insight
The double downgrade from a high-accuracy firm is a strong bearish signal, but institutional buying provides a counterbalance. Traders should watch for further downgrades or EPS estimate cuts as confirmation; a break below $406 could accelerate selling.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 15, 2026
3d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $404.33 $443.31 | ▲ +9.64% | ▲ +7.73% | $410.89 (+1.62%) |
|
Jun 11, 2026
7d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $409.84 $410.89 | ▲ +0.26% | ▼ −0.18% | $410.89 (+0.26%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
13d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $410.89 (+6.39%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
13d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $438.93 $408.84 | ▲ +6.86% | ▲ +8.03% | $410.89 (+6.39%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
14d ago
|
425
| $401.82 $411.08 | ▲ +2.30% | ▲ +1.74% | $410.89 (+2.26%) |
|
Jun 4, 2026
14d ago
|
8-K
| $401.82 $411.08 | ▲ +2.30% | ▲ +1.74% | $410.89 (+2.26%) |
|
May 29, 2026
20d ago
|
DEFM14A
| $412.19 $401.82 | ▼ −2.52% | ▲ +0.23% | $410.89 (−0.32%) |
|
May 21, 2026
28d ago
|
ANALYST-DOWNGRADE
| $469.92 $435.15 | ▼ −7.40% | ▼ −8.48% | $410.89 (−12.56%) |
|
May 16, 2026
4w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $404.33 $443.31 | ▲ +9.64% | ▲ +7.72% | $410.89 (+1.62%) |
|
May 11, 2026
5w ago
|
425
| $424.63 $406.29 | ▼ −4.32% | ▼ −4.23% | $410.89 (−3.24%) |
US Market Status
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