BLD TopBuild Corp

Price Chart

Executive Summary

DA Davidson double-downgraded TopBuild Corp (BLD) from Buy to Neutral on May 6, 2026, slashing its price target to $437 from $465, a 6% reduction. The call is contrarian to the consensus, where 8 of 17 analysts still rate BLD a Buy (47%) and the mean target of $473.80 implies 16.6% upside from the current $406.31. DA Davidson’s accuracy on BLD is just 40% (2 of 5 calls), well below the peer average, and its average return of +7.7% ranks in the bottom tier. The downgrade follows a string of negative revisions: Loop Capital also downgraded to Hold on the same day, and JP Morgan cut to Neutral on April 21. EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have seen 5 downward revisions in the past 30 days versus 3 upward, signaling softening expectations. Institutional activity is mixed — Morgan Stanley added 55.5% to its position while Norges Bank exited entirely — and no insider trades or congressional activity were recorded. The bottom line: a low-accuracy firm making a contrarian double downgrade amid a broader analyst downgrade cycle warrants caution, but the consensus still sees upside, creating a tug-of-war for traders.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Of 17 analysts covering BLD, 3 rate it Strong Buy, 5 Buy, and 9 Hold — 47% Buy, 53% Hold, 0% Sell. The consensus is tilted bullish but has been eroding, with three downgrades in the past month. DA Davidson’s Neutral call aligns with the growing Hold camp but is more bearish than the majority Buy view.

The mean price target is $473.80 (median $490.50), implying 16.6% upside from the current $406.31. The high target is $505, the low is $433. DA Davidson’s new $437 target sits 7.8% below the mean and is the second-lowest among analysts, just above RBC Capital’s $433. The implied downside to the mean suggests DA Davidson is significantly more cautious than the Street.

Recent Analyst Activity

In the past 30 days, BLD has seen 3 downgrades (DA Davidson, Loop Capital, JP Morgan) and 0 upgrades. EPS estimates for the current fiscal year have been revised down 5 times in the past 30 days versus 3 upward revisions, and the 7-day trend shows 3 upward revisions with no downward revisions, suggesting some stabilization. The overall trend is negative but not accelerating.

Firm Track Record — DA Davidson

DA Davidson accuracy: 53% on 1587 calls | avg return: 3.2%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 9 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

DA Davidson has a 40% accuracy rate on 5 BLD calls, well below the peer average. Its average return of +7.7% is below the top-tier firms like Loop Capital (67% accuracy, +16.7% avg return) and Stephens & Co. (67%, +18.8%). The best-performing firm on BLD is Seaport Global (100% on 2 calls, though with a -7% avg return); the worst is Jefferies (0% on 3 calls, -13.5% avg return). DA Davidson’s track record does not command strong conviction.

Earnings Estimates

Cross-Platform Signals

No insider trades or congressional activity were recorded, removing a potential confirming or contradicting signal. Institutional activity is mixed: Morgan Stanley added 55.5% to its position (value ~$193M), and UBS added 51.9% (~$96M), while Norges Bank exited entirely. The lack of insider selling or buying means the analyst downgrade stands alone without cross-validation. Short interest data was not available.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status