AXP AMERICAN EXPRESS CO

Price Chart

Executive Summary

Three firms acted on American Express on October 24, 2025, with Freedom Broker upgrading from Sell to Hold (price target raised to $325 from $280), Redburn Atlantic also adjusting coverage, and B of A Securities reiterating Buy at $387. Freedom Broker holds a solid 66% accuracy rate on 68 calls with an average return of 11.8%, while BofA is a top-tier firm at 71% accuracy. The overall consensus is 46% Buy, 51% Hold, and 3% Sell across 35 analysts; the mean price target of $362.48 implies 12.2% upside from the current $323.05. Freedom Broker's $325 PT sits at the low end of the range (high $450, low $285), signaling a cautious near-term view. EPS revisions for the current year are positive (12 up, 4 down over 30 days), but the current quarter has been revised down more often (5 up, 11 down). Insider selling is pronounced—$8.3M in recent months—while short interest stands at a high 56.7% ratio, creating potential for a squeeze. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank opened a $2.46B position but also exited elsewhere, and Wells Fargo added 31.4%. The cluster signals heightened analyst focus, but the divergence between insider selling, short interest, and mixed upward earnings estimates calls for a cautious stance.

Impact Score

Consensus & Targets

Across 35 analysts: 5 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 18 Hold, 0 Sell, 1 Strong Sell — yielding 46% Buy, 51% Hold, and 3% Sell. The consensus is heavily tilted toward Hold, reflecting caution despite the lack of outright sell ratings.

Mean price target $362.48, median $357.50, high $450.00, low $285.00. Current price $323.05 implies +12.2% upside to the mean. Freedom Broker’s $325 target is below consensus, while BofA’s $387 sits above the median, illustrating the wide dispersion in views.

Recent Analyst Activity

Analyst momentum over the past 30 days shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades prior to today’s cluster. EPS revision trends are mixed: the current quarter (0q) had 5 upward vs 11 downward revisions in 30 days, while the current year (0y) had 12 up vs 4 down, indicating better long-term confidence.

Firm Track Record — Freedom Broker

Freedom Broker accuracy: 66% on 68 calls | avg return: 11.8%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Freedom Broker has a 66% accuracy rate on 68 scored calls with an average return of 11.8%, ranking above average. BofA Securities is top-tier with 71% accuracy on 7 calls (avg return 13%). The best performers include TD Cowen and Goldman Sachs (100% on small samples); the weakest are UBS and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (50% accuracy).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 16, 2026

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider trading shows sustained selling: $8.3M in total sales by executives over the past 6 months, led by Seeger Laureen ($4.6M) and Grosfield Howard ($2.8M). Congressional trades are small and mixed: one sell (Rep. Larsen) and two buys (Reps. Moskowitz and Capito). Institutional moves are divergent: Norges Bank opened a $2.46B position but also shows an exit; Wells Fargo added 31.4%. Short interest is elevated at a 56.7% short ratio, creating a bearish undercurrent that diverges from the generally positive analyst consensus.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

US Market Status