AUGO Aura Minerals Inc.

BEARISH Impact: 5/10 Insider Cluster (2 insiders)
Horizon weeks Filed May 15, 2026 Processed 21d ago
Insider cluster: 2 insiders, $5.8M total
Latest settled — T+5d ⚠ clustered
AUGO ▲ +1.04% at T+5d
SHORT call ✗ call lost -1.04% · α vs SPY +0.58% · entry $74.86 → $75.64
Next anchor: T+20d in 5d
Currently $57.05 · +23.79% from $74.86 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 15, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-4.54%
call +4.54% · α +3.89%
$71.46
settled 23d ago
T+5d
+1.04%
call -1.04% · α +0.58%
$75.64
settled 19d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 5d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Aura Minerals CEO Rodrigo Cardoso sold $4.54M worth of stock at $82.63/share, and Director Bruno Sousa Mauad sold $1.22M at $26.85/share, totaling $5.77M in insider sales over a 7-day window. The CEO sale is particularly notable given the 92% analyst bullish consensus and $6.3B market cap, though the total represents only ~0.09% of market cap, falling just below the 0.1% materiality threshold. The cluster is amplified by the cross-filing actuarial verdicts (cluster-insider-trades + multiple contexts), but the historical calibration shows a 40% win rate on prior AUGO calls and negative average alpha, suggesting caution against over-interpreting.

Key Financial Metrics

Direction
selling
Total Value
$5.8M
Insiders
2

Actionable Insight

The CEO's $4.54M sale is the dominant signal here, but at 0.09% of market cap it's just below the 0.1% materiality threshold. The sustained selling pattern (additional $15.1M in prior 30 days) and the cross-filing amplifier verdicts suggest this cluster warrants attention. Monitor for any 8-K filings (earnings, guidance, or material agreements) in the next 2 weeks that could explain the insider selling. The 92% bullish analyst consensus creates a potential sentiment disconnect — if negative news emerges, the stock could see outsized downside.

Key Facts

  • CEO Barbosa Rodrigo Cardoso sold 55,000 shares at $82.63 for $4.54M on 2026-05-12
  • Director Sousa Mauad Bruno sold 45,523 shares at $26.85 for $1.22M on 2026-05-14
  • Total insider sales of $5.77M represent ~0.09% of Aura's $6.3B market cap
  • Director Sousa Mauad also had 4 non-cash transactions (46,402 shares at $0) in the same window
  • Prior 30-day insider activity: 5 sells totaling $15.1M, suggesting a sustained selling pattern
  • Analyst consensus is 92% bullish (3 Strong Buy, 9 Buy, 1 Hold)
  • Historical calibration shows prior AUGO reports had 40% win rate at T+20 with negative average alpha

Financial Impact

CEO and Director sold $5.77M combined, ~0.09% of market cap

insider ownershipmarket sentiment

Risk Factors

  • CEO selling $4.54M could signal insider concern about valuation or upcoming headwinds
  • Sustained insider selling pattern ($20.9M total in ~45 days) despite bullish analyst consensus
  • Historical calibration shows prior AUGO reports had negative average alpha at T+20
  • Director's non-cash transactions (46,402 shares) may indicate equity compensation vesting, but the open-market sale is purely discretionary

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Metal Mining
Analyst Consensus
92% bullish (13 analysts)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 1 SEC document filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
CLUSTER Data (Synthetic)cluster-AUGO-1779241810528
12 reports for AUGO
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 7 of 7 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +25.39%Apr 13, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for AUGO — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 26, 2026
14d ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$74.76 $64.23▼ −14.09%▼ −14.55%$57.05 (−23.69%)
May 19, 2026
21d ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$74.95 $75.88▲ +1.24%▼ −0.56%$57.05 (−23.88%)
May 15, 2026
25d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$74.86 $75.64▲ +1.04%▼ −0.58%$57.05 (−23.79%)
May 15, 2026
25d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$74.86 $75.64▼ −1.04%▲ +0.58%$57.05 (+23.79%)
May 12, 2026
29d ago
Insider Cluster
BEARISH ★ 5/10
$83.72 $71.46▲ +14.64%▲ +14.05%$57.05 (+31.86%)
May 6, 2026
4w ago
Press Release
MIXED ★ 6/10
$81.07 $79.26▼ −2.23%▼ −3.74%$57.05 (−29.63%)
May 6, 2026
4w ago
Press Release
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$81.07 $79.26▼ −2.23%▼ −3.74%$57.05 (−29.63%)
Apr 13, 2026
8w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$108.65 $97.12▲ +10.61%▲ +12.01%$57.05 (+47.49%)
Apr 10, 2026
8w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 8/10
$101.97 $109.14▲ +7.03%▲ +2.53%$57.05 (−44.05%)
Apr 10, 2026
8w ago
Press Release
BEARISH ★ 8/10
$101.97 $109.14▼ −7.03%▼ −2.53%$57.05 (+44.05%)
Showing 10 of 12

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Thu (11h 17m)

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