ASTLW Algoma Steel Group Inc.

BEARISH Impact: 7/10 6-K
Horizon weeks Filed May 22, 2026 Processed 23d 21h ago SEC 0001193125-26-235580
Notable filing: 6-K
Latest settled — T+5d
ASTLW ▼ -50.25% at T+5d
SHORT call ✓ call won +50.25% · α vs SPY +51.93% · entry $0.1001 → $0.0498
Next anchor: T+20d in 8d
Last close $0.1001 (close Jun 12) · -0.00% from $0.1001 entry (call sign-flipped)
Entry anchored
May 18, 02:25 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
0.00%
call 0.00% · α +0.59%
$0.1001
settled 20d ago
T+5d
-50.25%
call +50.25% · α +51.93%
$0.0498
settled 14d ago
T+20d
call — · α —
in 8d
T+60d
call — · α —
in 2mo

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Algoma Steel filed its management information circular for the June 23, 2026 annual meeting, revealing disastrous Fiscal 2025 results: revenue declined 15.3% to $2,085.7M, the company swung to a net loss of $984.9M from a $139.0M loss, and posted negative Adjusted EBITDA of ($261.4M) vs. +$22.4M prior year. The company decommissioned its blast furnaces in January 2026 to transition fully to EAF steelmaking. CEO Michael Garcia retired Dec 31, 2025 with contractual payments; all unvested equity was forfeited. The annual proxy vote is routine governance — the financial carnage is the material event.

Actionable Insight

Algoma's transition from blast furnace to EAF steelmaking may structurally improve costs, but the immediate financial deterioration (revenue -15%, massive net loss, cash burn) signals severe ongoing distress. The $3M market cap on ASTLW warrants extreme caution. Monitor Q1 2026 EAF operating results and liquidity position; the Large Enterprise Tariff Loan carries compensation restrictions suggesting government oversight. Expect continued volatility.

Key Facts

  • Consolidated revenue fell 15.3% YoY to $2,085.7M from $2,461.7M
  • Net loss widened to $984.9M from a $139.0M loss in the prior year
  • Consolidated loss from operations of $1,326.2M vs. $217.8M loss prior year
  • Adjusted EBITDA was negative ($261.4M) vs. +$22.4M positive Adjusted EBITDA prior year
  • Cash used in operating activities was $66.1M vs. cash generated of $82.3M prior year
  • Shipments fell 14% to 1,739,493 tons from 2,023,363 tons
  • Blast furnace production ceased and decommissioning commenced January 2026; company now operates exclusively as EAF steel producer
  • CEO Michael Garcia retired Dec 31, 2025 with US$765,000 severance payments over 12 months and pro-rated VCIP of US$659,812.50; all unvested equity forfeited
  • Executive VCIP payout was only 20% of target for Jan-Mar 2025 and 34.4% for Apr-Dec 2025
  • Board elected to receive 100% of retainers in DSUs effective July 2025 as cash preservation tactic

Financial Impact

Revenue decline of $376M (-15.3%), swing to $984.9M net loss, negative $261.4M Adjusted EBITDA, operating cash burn of $66.1M

revenueepsebitdaoperating cash flowshipments

Risk Factors

  • Ongoing US tariffs on Canadian steel imports remain a structural headwind
  • EAF transition may take time to achieve cost savings; interim period could see continued losses
  • Cash burn of $66.1M in operating activities raises liquidity concerns for a sub-$10M market cap security
  • CEO transition and loss of all unvested equity may cause key personnel retention risk

Market Snapshot

Exchange
Nasdaq
Sector
Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)

Documents Analyzed

This report is based on 6 SEC documents filed with EDGAR.

DocumentAccession Number
6-K Filing (Primary)0001193125-26-235580
Document: d14699d6k.htm0001193125-26-235580
Document: d14699dex992.htm0001193125-26-235580
Document: 0001193125-26-235580-index-headers.html0001193125-26-235580
Document: 0001193125-26-235580-index.html0001193125-26-235580
Document: 0001193125-26-235580.txt0001193125-26-235580
4 reports for ASTLW
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for ASTLW — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 22, 2026
23d ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.1001 $0.0498▲ +50.25%▲ +51.93%$0.1001 (−0.00%)
May 13, 2026
4w ago
6-K
BEARISH ★ 7/10
$0.1001 $0.1001· 0.00%▼ −1.16%$0.1001 (−0.00%)
Apr 10, 2026
9w ago
6-K
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$0.1001 $0.1001· 0.00%▼ −3.30%$0.1001 (+0.00%)
Apr 7, 2026
9w ago
6-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$0.1001 $0.1001· 0.00%▼ −3.52%$0.1001 (+0.00%)
Showing 4 of 4

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