ASND Ascendis Pharma A/S
Price Chart
Executive Summary
Morgan Stanley upgraded ASND from Equal-Weight to Overweight, lifting its price target to $250 from $180, as part of a broader 8-firm cluster of analyst actions. The new target sits below the consensus mean of $296 and even below the low estimate of $254, making it one of the more conservative bullish calls on the Street. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish at 23 Buy ratings out of 24 analysts. Morgan Stanley's overall analyst accuracy is 55% on 4,993 calls (avg return +4.3%), while its record on ASND is 67% on just 3 calls. EPS revisions have been sharply upward over the past week, with current-year estimates jumping from $2.82 to $10.21. Insider selling provides a notable contra-signal: CEO Flemming Steen Jensen sold $4.6M on May 11. However, institutional buying is heavy—Morgan Stanley itself added over 50% to its position, and Two Sigma doubled its stake. Short interest is extraordinarily high at 91.5% of float. The upgrade is directionally positive but the conservative target and insider sale temper the bullish signal.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Of 24 analysts covering ASND, 23 are bullish (11 Strong Buy, 12 Buy) and only 1 rates it Hold. Zero Sell ratings. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish, making Morgan Stanley's upgrade in line with the Street view rather than contrarian.
Mean PT is $295.96, median $287.46, high $341.98, low $253.76. Current price $245.49 implies 20.6% upside to the mean. Morgan Stanley's $250 PT is below both the mean and the low, offering just +1.8% upside—the most conservative bullish target among covering firms.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-15 | Evercore ISI Group | maintain | Outperform | $329.00 |
| 2026-05-11 | Barclays | maintain | Overweight | $345.00 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wells Fargo | maintain | Overweight | $326.00 |
| 2026-04-16 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $292.00 |
| 2026-04-09 | Wedbush | reiterate | Outperform | $273.00 |
| 2026-03-03 | RBC Capital | maintain | Outperform | — |
| 2026-02-12 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $262.00 |
| 2026-02-12 | Wedbush | maintain | Outperform | $273.00 |
| 2026-01-30 | B of A Securities | maintain | Buy | $260.00 |
| 2026-01-28 | Barclays | initiate | Overweight | $342.00 |
No upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. EPS estimates have been revised sharply higher in the past week: current-year EPS avg moved from $2.82 to $10.21, and next-year from $7.64 to $9.30. This upward revision momentum supports the bullish thesis.
Firm Track Record — Morgan Stanley
Morgan Stanley accuracy: 55% on 4993 calls | avg return: 4.3%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 14 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RBC Capital | 100% | 3/3 | 5.2% | top tier |
| Wedbush | 100% | 4/4 | 5.8% | top tier |
| UBS | 100% | 2/2 | 2.7% | top tier |
| TD Cowen | 100% | 4/4 | 8.3% | top tier |
| Stifel | 100% | 4/4 | 7% | top tier |
| B of A Securities | 80% | 4/5 | 7.7% | top tier |
| Oppenheimer | 80% | 4/5 | 7.3% | top tier |
| Citigroup | 75% | 3/4 | 7.4% | top tier |
| Evercore ISI Group | 67% | 2/3 | -0.7% | top tier |
| Morgan Stanley | 67% | 2/3 | 6.1% | top tier |
Morgan Stanley's overall accuracy is 55% on 4,993 calls with an average return of +4.3%—solidly average. On ASND specifically, it has 67% accuracy on 3 calls (2 correct). Among covering firms, the strongest track records belong to RBC Capital, Wedbush, UBS, TD Cowen, and Stifel (all 100% on 3-4 calls each), while BofA and Oppenheimer are at 80%.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $10.21 | $2.13 — $15.48 | $1.4B | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1q | $1.21 | $0.50 — $1.63 | $358.5M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| 0q | $1.37 | $0.53 — $3.11 | $339.2M | ↑0 ↓0 |
| +1y | $9.30 | $7.56 — $11.70 | $2.0B | ↑1 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider trades show a large sell: CEO Flemming Steen Jensen sold $4.6M on May 11, a bearish signal opposing the upgrade. However, institutional buying is robust—Morgan Stanley increased its position by 51.9% and 59.6% in two recent filings, Two Sigma doubled its stake, and UBS added 135.9%. Short interest is extremely high at 91.5% of float, a potential squeeze factor. No congressional trades.
Actionable Insight
The upgrade is directionally positive but tempered by a conservative PT and a CEO sale. Traders should note the heavy institutional accumulation and upward EPS revisions as supporting near-term upside, while watching for further insider sales that could signal deeper concerns.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 2, 2026
7d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $216.79 $218.84 | ▲ +0.95% | ▲ +0.55% | $209.41 (−3.40%) |
|
May 19, 2026
22d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $237.98 $241.34 | ▲ +1.41% | ▲ +0.37% | $209.41 (−12.00%) |
|
May 16, 2026
24d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $170.74 $162.84 | ▼ −4.63% | ▼ −3.78% | $209.41 (+22.65%) |
|
May 7, 2026
4w ago
|
6-K
| $246.14 $238.66 | ▼ −3.04% | ▼ −3.87% | $209.41 (−14.92%) |
|
May 7, 2026
4w ago
|
6-K
| $246.14 $238.66 | ▼ −3.04% | ▼ −3.87% | $209.41 (−14.92%) |
|
May 6, 2026
4w ago
|
Press Release
| $246.14 $246.14 | · 0.00% | ▼ −0.83% | $209.41 (−14.92%) |
|
Apr 21, 2026
7w ago
|
6-K
| $240.29 $231.05 | ▼ −3.85% | ▼ −4.86% | $209.41 (−12.85%) |
|
Apr 16, 2026
7w ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $242.95 $244.48 | ▲ +0.63% | ▼ −0.58% | $209.41 (−13.80%) |
|
Apr 8, 2026
8w ago
|
6-K
| $241.71 $239.28 | ▼ −1.01% | ▼ −0.94% | $209.41 (−13.36%) |
|
Apr 8, 2026
8w ago
|
6-K
| $241.71 $239.28 | ▼ −1.01% | ▼ −0.94% | $209.41 (−13.36%) |
US Market Status
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