ARBE ANALYST-DOWNGRADE SEC Filing Analysis

Final — all horizons settled through T+60d

ARBE ▲ +33.33% at T+60d

NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +33.33% · α vs SPY +29.82% · entry $1.29 → $1.72

Last close $0.8830 (close Jun 8) · -31.55% from $1.29 entry

Entry anchored
Mar 6, 04:38 PM ET
via Databento tick

T+1d

-7.75%

call -7.75% · α -5.13%

$1.19

settled 15mo ago

T+5d

-5.43%

call -5.43% · α -3.17%

$1.22

settled 15mo ago

T+20d

-27.13%

call -27.13% · α -14.97%

$0.9400

settled 14mo ago

T+60d

+33.33%

call +33.33% · α +29.82%

$1.72

settled 12mo ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Maxim Group downgraded ARBE from Buy to Hold without a price target, a contrarian call against a bullish consensus. The firm has a 43% accuracy rate on 305 rated calls and an average return of 5.9%, below the peer average. Consensus stands at 70% Buy (8 of 10 analysts) with a mean price target of $2.375, implying 172% upside from the current price of $0.8739. The downgrade is part of a cluster: WestPark Capital initiated Buy (PT $3.50) and Canaccord Genuity maintained Buy (PT $1.25), both within the past 60 days. Earnings estimates have been revised upward over the last 30 days, with next-quarter EPS improving from -$0.095 to -$0.07. Short interest is elevated at 55.8% of tracked volume (ratio likely days to cover), signaling bearish positioning. No insider or congressional trades were recorded. The Maxim downgrade carries limited weight given the firm's below-average accuracy and the bullish consensus; the stock remains deeply undervalued to targets.

Impact Score

Base Score

0/7

LLM Adjustment

+0

Final Score

1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy

8 (80%)

Hold

2

Sell / Strong Sell

0

Total Analysts

2

Mean PT

$2.38

Median PT

$2.38

High PT

$3.50

Low PT

$1.25

Current Price

$0.8739

Implied Upside

+171.8%

Of 10 analysts covering ARBE, 2 have Strong Buy, 6 have Buy, and 2 have Hold. Zero Sell or Strong Sell ratings. Consensus is 70% bullish, 20% neutral.

Mean price target is $2.375, median $2.375, high $3.50 (WestPark Capital), low $1.25 (Canaccord Genuity). Current price: $0.8739. Implied upside to mean: 172%. Maxim Group dropped its target entirely with the downgrade.

Recent Analyst Activity

Date	Firm	Action	Rating	Price Target
2026-05-11	Amerx	initiate	Buy	$2.21
2026-02-27	Canaccord Genuity	maintain	Buy	$1.25
2026-01-08	WestPark Capital	initiate	Buy	$3.50
2025-11-18	Canaccord Genuity	maintain	Buy	$1.75
2025-04-01	Canaccord Genuity	initiate	Buy	$1.75
2025-03-06	Maxim Group	downgrade	Hold	—

In the past 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Amerx initiated Buy, PT $2.21) and 1 downgrade (Maxim). EPS estimates for the next quarter have been revised up from -$0.095 to -$0.07 over 30 days, and for the next fiscal year from -$0.20 to -$0.14. Revisions are trending positive.

Firm Track Record — Maxim Group

Maxim Group accuracy: 43% on 305 calls | avg return: 5.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 1 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

Firm	Accuracy	Calls	Avg Return	vs Average
Canaccord Genuity	50%	1/2	22.9%	below average

Maxim Group has a 43% accuracy rate on 305 calls and an average return of 5.9%, placing it below the average of firms covering ARBE. Canaccord Genuity shows 50% accuracy on only 2 calls (small sample). Best performer among recent firms: WestPark Capital (initiated Buy at $3.50); worst: Maxim (downgrade).

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 18, 2026

Period	EPS Est.	EPS Range	Revenue	Revisions (7d)
+1q	$-0.07	$-0.07 — $-0.07	$500.0K	↑1 ↓0
0q	$-0.07	$-0.07 — $-0.07	$500.0K	↑1 ↓0
0y	$-0.27	$-0.27 — $-0.27	$4.5M	↑1 ↓0
+1y	$-0.14	$-0.14 — $-0.14	$26.0M	↑1 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Short Interest

Short: 673,856 | Exempt: 1,786 | TRF Vol: 1,208,247 | Short Ratio: 55.8% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

No insider trades or institutional position changes reported. No congressional trades. Short interest is elevated: short ratio of 55.8% (likely days to cover), indicating high bearish bets. This divergence from the bullish analyst consensus is notable but not directly aligned with the Maxim downgrade.

Actionable Insight

Maxim's downgrade is a low-conviction signal from a below-average firm; the consensus remains strongly bullish with massive upside to targets. High short interest may fuel a squeeze, but wait for confirmation from earnings (May 18, 2026) before adding positions.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

4 reports for ARBE

T+1T+5T+20T+60

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters

Reports for ARBE — sortable, filterable
	Type				Now
May 16, 2026 24d ago	ANALYST-DOWNGRADE NEUTRAL ★ 1/10	$1.29 $1.22	▼ −5.43%	▼ −3.17%	$0.8830 (−31.55%)
May 11, 2026 29d ago	ANALYST-UPGRADE BULLISH ★ 3/10	$0.8960 $1.00	▲ +11.61%	▲ +11.69%	$0.8830 (−1.45%)
Apr 17, 2026 7w ago	Press Release BEARISH ★ 7/10	$0.8150 $0.7910	▲ +2.94%	▲ +3.86%	$0.8830 (−8.34%)
Apr 16, 2026 7w ago	ANALYST-DOWNGRADE MIXED ★ 6/10	$0.8130 $0.7480	▼ −8.00%	▼ −8.98%	$0.8830 (+8.61%)

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens in 6h 7m

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