AI C3.ai, Inc.
Executive Summary
AI (C3.ai) Q3 2025 13F cluster shows net buying of $64.9M by 5 institutions vs -$64.1M selling by 4, for a tiny net positive of ~$800K. The cluster is mixed: Two Sigma opened a new $13.4M position and Morgan Stanley doubled to $82.1M, but Citadel slashed 58% of its holdings (-$42.4M) and UBS trimmed meaningfully. With 9 institutions split 5/4 but the largest single-dollar action being a massive seller (Citadel), the institutional conviction is ambiguous and likely reflects the stock's weak fundamental narrative — low revenue growth, high cash burn, and a bearish analyst consensus (only 5% bullish). The prior report win rate of 71% T+20 supports some signal, but the calibration shows this segment's T+20 net alpha is -2.04% after costs, and directional calls (bullish or bearish) at scores 6-8 historically underperform. The net cluster signal is not strong enough to override the stock's fundamental headwinds.
Key Financial Metrics
Institutional Positions
Net institutional flow: $800.0K
▲ Buyers (5)
| Institution | Action | Change | Position Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D.E. Shaw | ADD | +56.4% | $10.4M | $976.0K |
| BofA | DOUBLED | +358.9% | $10.5M | $7.3M |
| Two Sigma | NEW | — | $13.4M | $13.4M |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors | ADD | +77.1% | $31.3M | $6.3M |
| Morgan Stanley | DOUBLED | +157.9% | $82.1M | $37.0M |
▼ Sellers (4)
| Institution | Action | Change | Prev Value | Value Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fidelity | TRIM | -48% | $255.0K | -$161.7K |
| Citadel | TRIM | -58.3% | $60.0M | -$42.4M |
| UBS | TRIM | -35.6% | $30.1M | -$16.4M |
| UBS Am, A Distinct Business Un | TRIM | -40.7% | $8.8M | -$5.1M |
Actionable Insight
The institutional cluster is too balanced to provide a clear directional signal. Watch for a follow-on catalyst — an earnings beat or a material new partnership would validate the Two Sigma/Morgan Stanley buying thesis. Conversely, if Citadel and UBS continue reducing next quarter, the selling pressure is more durable than the buying. Given the -2% expected T+20 net alpha in this segment, avoid betting directionally on this data alone.
Key Facts
- 5 institutional buyers added $64.9M in new positions, led by Morgan Stanley doubling ($37.0M increase) and Two Sigma's new $13.4M position
- 4 institutional sellers trimmed by $64.1M, led by Citadel cutting 58% (-$42.4M) and UBS trimming 36% (-$16.4M)
- Net aggregate institutional change is negligible at approximately +$0.8M across 9 filers
- Active and quant funds (D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma, Citadel) are split: two buying, one selling heavily
Financial Impact
9 institutions reported $147.6M in aggregate AI holdings; net buying was approximately $0.8M, a negligible move relative to the $1.6B market cap
Risk Factors
- 13F data is 45+ days stale — clusters may have already been unwound
- Citadel is the single largest directional actor (-$42.4M), suggesting a bearish thesis from a historically sophisticated quant fund
- Analyst consensus is heavily bearish (5% bullish, 12 sell/strong sell) — institutional buying may be index-rebalancing or passive, not fundamental conviction
Market Snapshot
Documents Analyzed
This report is based on 1 institutional 13F filing from SEC EDGAR.
| Document | Accession Number |
|---|---|
| INST-CLUSTER Data (Synthetic) | inst-cluster-AI-2025-Q3 |
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 12, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $11.26 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
|
Jun 11, 2026
3d ago
|
Institutional Cluster
| $10.88 awaiting T+1 | awaiting T+1 | — | — |
|
Jun 3, 2026
11d ago
|
8-K
| $10.58 $10.43 | ▲ +1.42% | ▼ −1.16% | — |
|
Mar 25, 2026
11w ago
|
8-K
| $8.28 $8.31 | ▲ +0.36% | ▲ +2.13% | — |
|
Mar 16, 2026
13w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $8.80 $8.81 | ▼ −0.11% | ▲ +0.16% | — |
|
Mar 9, 2026
14w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $9.27 $8.96 | ▼ −3.34% | ▼ −3.16% | — |
|
Mar 2, 2026
15w ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $8.65 $9.10 | ▲ +5.20% | ▲ +6.12% | — |
|
Feb 25, 2026
15w ago
|
8-K
| $10.31 $8.40 | ▲ +18.53% | ▲ +17.98% | — |
US Market Status
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