ABTC American Bitcoin Corp.

BULLISH Impact: 3/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-ABTC-hcwainwr-20260202
2 firms acted on ABTC: HC Wainwright & Co., Roth Capital
Final — all horizons settled through T+60d
ABTC ▼ -20.28% at T+60d
LONG call ✗ call lost -20.28% · α vs SPY -22.60% · entry $1.43 → $1.14
Last close $0.8570 (close Jun 12) · -40.07% from $1.43 entry
Entry anchored
Jan 30, 03:59 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-5.59%
call -5.59% · α -4.72%
$1.35
settled 4mo ago
T+5d
-11.89%
call -11.89% · α -11.70%
$1.26
settled 4mo ago
T+20d
-27.97%
call -27.97% · α -25.79%
$1.03
settled 3mo ago
T+60d
-20.28%
call -20.28% · α -22.60%
$1.14
settled 7w ago

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Two firms initiated coverage on American Battery Technology Company (ABTC) on the same day, with HC Wainwright and Roth Capital both issuing Buy ratings and a $4 price target. The stock currently trades at $1.24, offering 223% implied upside to the mean target. Consensus is overwhelmingly bullish at 88% Buy-equivalent ratings (7 of 8 analysts). HC Wainwright has a 43% accuracy rate on 4,605 calls with a 2.5% average return, which is below the typical 50%+ threshold for high-conviction calls. EPS estimates have been revised sharply lower over the past 30 days, with the current-year EPS dropping from $0.04 to $0.015. Insider buying is heavy — three purchases totaling $2.2M in early March, including a $1.85M buy by Director Mateen Justin. Institutional accumulation is extreme: Vanguard doubled its position (+1,144%), Charles Schwab and Two Sigma opened new positions worth $5.3M and $4.4M respectively. Short interest is elevated at 55.1% of float, creating a potential squeeze setup. The next earnings report is due May 6, 2026 — within 30 days, adding a timing catalyst. Bottom line: a cluster of bullish initiations from low-accuracy firms, but massive insider buying and institutional accumulation signal real conviction — the 55% short interest is the key tactical factor.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
3/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
7 (88%)
Hold
1
Sell / Strong Sell
0
Total Analysts
2
Mean PT
$4.00
Median PT
$4.00
High PT
$4.00
Low PT
$4.00
Current Price
$1.24
Implied Upside
+222.6%

Consensus is 88% Buy-equivalent: 2 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 1 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell across 8 analysts. The lone Hold rating is the only dissenting voice, making the consensus direction overwhelmingly bullish.

Mean and median price target is $4.00, with high and low also at $4.00 — no dispersion. Current price $1.24 implies 223% upside to the mean. Both HC Wainwright and Roth Capital are exactly at the consensus target, meaning their view is in-line with the street.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-02-02 HC Wainwright & Co. initiate Buy $4.00
2025-12-10 Roth Capital initiate Buy $4.00

Zero upgrades or downgrades in the past 30 days. However, EPS revisions are sharply negative: current-year EPS estimate dropped from $0.04 to $0.015 over 30 days (a 63% cut). Next-quarter EPS fell from $0.01 to $0.00. Revenue estimates remain stable. The downward EPS revision trend conflicts with the bullish analyst initiations.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: May 6, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0y $0.01 $0.01 — $0.02 $326.2M ↑0 ↓0
+1q $0.00 $0.00 — $0.00 $75.3M ↑0 ↓0
+1y $0.02 $0.02 — $0.02 $491.4M ↑0 ↓0
0q $0.01 $0.00 — $0.01 $74.8M ↑0 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
4 buys / 0 sells
Institutional
VANGUARD GROUP INC — doubled (1144.4%)
Institutional
MORGAN STANLEY — doubled (254.4%)
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — doubled (883.3%)
Short Interest
Short: 2,508,393 | Exempt: 0 | TRF Vol: 4,551,854 | Short Ratio: 55.1% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider buying is extremely bullish: Director Busch Richard bought $412K worth in three trades (Mar 3-5), and Director Mateen Justin bought $1.85M on Mar 3. Institutional accumulation is massive — Vanguard doubled its position (+1,144%), Morgan Stanley (+254%), Bank of America (+883%), and two new funds (Charles Schwab $5.3M, Two Sigma $4.4M). Short interest is 55.1% of float — extremely high. No congressional trades. The convergence of insider buying, institutional accumulation, and high short interest strongly supports the bullish analyst signal.

Actionable Insight

The 55% short interest combined with massive insider buying and institutional accumulation creates a high-probability squeeze setup. Traders should watch for a short squeeze catalyst ahead of the May 6 earnings — the cluster of bullish initiations adds fuel to an already crowded short.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

5 reports for ABTC
Performance horizon
100% Hit rate 3 of 3 directional calls best @ T+5▲ +12.62%Mar 3, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ABTC — sortable, filterable
Type Now
May 3, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$1.43 $1.03▼ −27.97%▼ −25.79%$0.8570 (−40.07%)
Apr 27, 2026
6w ago
DEFA14A
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$1.21 $1.08▼ −10.74%▼ −15.70%$0.8570 (−29.17%)
Mar 3, 2026
14w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.03 $0.9240▼ −10.29%▼ −5.89%$0.8570 (−16.80%)
Mar 3, 2026
14w ago
Insider Cluster
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.03 $0.9240▼ −10.29%▼ −5.89%$0.8570 (−16.80%)
Feb 26, 2026
15w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 7/10
$1.08 $0.9130▼ −15.46%▼ −9.06%$0.8570 (−20.65%)
Showing 5 of 5

US Market Status

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