ABNB Airbnb, Inc.

BULLISH Impact: 4/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 15d 12h ago SEC analyst-ABNB-wellsfar-20260422
Wells Fargo double upgrade: Equal-Weight → Overweight
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
ABNB ▼ -5.99% at T+20d
LONG call ✗ call lost -5.99% · α vs SPY -10.21% · entry $144.18 → $135.55
Next anchor: T+60d in 6w
Currently $133.54 · -7.38% from $144.18 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 21, 04:29 PM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
-1.60%
call -1.60% · α -1.21%
$141.87
settled 6w ago
T+5d
-2.70%
call -2.70% · α -2.76%
$140.28
settled 6w ago
T+20d
-5.99%
call -5.99% · α -10.21%
$135.55
settled 18d ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 6w

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

Wells Fargo double-upgraded ABNB from Equal-Weight to Overweight on April 22, 2026, raising its price target to $178 from $136 — a 30.9% increase implying 32.5% upside from the current $134.25. The firm, with a 55% accuracy rate on 6,035 calls and an average return of 3.6%, is making a contrarian call against a consensus that is 74% Buy/26% Hold/Sell. The new $178 target sits above the consensus mean of $156.79 and median of $157, but below the high of $181. EPS revisions have been overwhelmingly positive: 24 upward revisions in the last 7 days for the current quarter vs. 0 down, and 25 up vs. 0 down for next fiscal year. However, insider selling by co-founders Blecharczyk and Gebbia totaling ~$7.2M over the past month creates a bearish divergence. Short interest is elevated at 55.7% of float, suggesting potential for a squeeze if the upgrade gains traction. The bottom line: a high-conviction double upgrade from a credible firm with strong earnings momentum, but insider sales and high short interest warrant caution.

Impact Score

Base Score
2/7
LLM Adjustment
+2
Final Score
4/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
26 (53%)
Hold
21
Sell / Strong Sell
2
Total Analysts
35
Mean PT
$156.79
Median PT
$157.00
High PT
$181.00
Low PT
$115.00
Current Price
$134.25
Implied Upside
+16.8%

Consensus is 26% Buy (8 strong buy, 18 buy), 60% Hold (21 hold), and 14% Sell (2 sell, 0 strong sell) across 35 analysts. The consensus is predominantly neutral-to-bullish, making Wells Fargo's upgrade a contrarian call against the hold-heavy majority.

Current price: $134.25. Consensus mean: $156.79, median: $157, high: $181, low: $115. Wells Fargo's $178 target is above the mean and median, implying 32.5% upside. The target is near the high end of the range, reflecting above-consensus conviction.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-21 RBC Capital reiterate Outperform $173.00
2026-05-11 DA Davidson maintain Buy $162.00
2026-05-11 Barclays maintain Equal-Weight $125.00
2026-05-08 UBS maintain Neutral $157.00
2026-05-08 Benchmark maintain Buy $160.00
2026-05-08 Citigroup maintain Buy $175.00
2026-05-08 JP Morgan maintain Neutral $140.00
2026-05-08 RBC Capital maintain Outperform $173.00
2026-05-08 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $181.00
2026-05-08 Citizens maintain Market Outperform $170.00

In the last 30 days, there has been 1 upgrade (Wells Fargo) and 0 downgrades. EPS revisions are strongly positive: 24 upward revisions for the current quarter vs. 0 down, and 25 up vs. 0 down for next fiscal year. Estimates are being revised higher across all periods.

Firm Track Record — Wells Fargo

Wells Fargo accuracy: 55% on 6035 calls | avg return: 3.6%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
BTIG 100% 2/2 7.7% top tier
Deutsche Bank 75% 3/4 6.4% top tier
RBC Capital 75% 3/4 8% top tier
Piper Sandler 75% 3/4 6.1% top tier
DA Davidson 71% 5/7 3.5% top tier
TD Cowen 67% 4/6 0.9% top tier
BMO Capital 67% 2/3 3.1% top tier
Morgan Stanley 67% 4/6 -2.5% top tier
Mizuho 67% 2/3 4.2% top tier
Jefferies 67% 6/9 4.1% top tier

Wells Fargo has a 55% accuracy rate on 6,035 calls with an average return of 3.6%. Among firms covering ABNB, top-tier performers include BTIG (100% on 2 calls), Deutsche Bank (75% on 4), RBC Capital (75% on 4), and Piper Sandler (75% on 4). Wells Fargo's accuracy is in the above-average range, but its large sample size adds credibility.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Aug 4, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $1.25 $0.93 — $1.44 $3.6B ↑24 ↓0
+1y $6.03 $5.35 — $7.58 $15.4B ↑25 ↓0
0y $5.08 $3.98 — $5.76 $14.0B ↑24 ↓0
+1q $2.74 $2.05 — $3.20 $4.6B ↑20 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
BANK OF AMERICA CORP /DE/ — trim (-29.5%)
Institutional
UBS Group AG — add (64.5%)
Short Interest
Short: 678,858 | Exempt: 2,307 | TRF Vol: 1,218,748 | Short Ratio: 55.7% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

Insider selling is notable: co-founders Blecharczyk ($6.2M on May 8, plus smaller sales) and Gebbia ($380K on May 4) have sold ~$7.2M in the past month. This is a bearish divergence against the bullish analyst signal. Institutional activity is mixed: Norges Bank exited a position, while UBS added 64.5%. Short interest is elevated at 55.7% of float, suggesting high bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze.

Actionable Insight

The double upgrade from a credible firm with strong earnings momentum is a bullish signal, but insider selling and high short interest create a tug-of-war. Traders should watch for a breakout above $140 resistance; a close above that level could trigger a short squeeze toward the $157 consensus mean.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

20 reports for ABNB
Performance horizon
83% Hit rate 5 of 6 directional calls best @ T+20▲ +8.97%May 31, 2026
Filters
Rows
Reports for ABNB — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 4, 2026
2d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$133.73 awaiting T+1awaiting T+1$133.54 (−0.14%)
Jun 4, 2026
2d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 3/10
$133.73 awaiting T+1awaiting T+1$133.54 (−0.14%)
Jun 3, 2026
3d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
awaiting T+1
Jun 3, 2026
3d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 3/10
$138.86 $139.73▲ +0.63%▼ −0.17%$133.54 (−3.83%)
Jun 2, 2026
4d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$133.59 $133.72▲ +0.10%▼ −0.31%$133.54 (−0.04%)
May 31, 2026
6d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 1/10
$131.06 $122.87▼ −6.25%▼ −4.57%$133.54 (+1.89%)
May 30, 2026
8d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
awaiting T+1
May 22, 2026
15d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
BULLISH ★ 4/10
$144.18 $141.87▼ −1.60%▼ −1.21%$133.54 (−7.38%)
May 21, 2026
16d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$132.35 $132.68▲ +0.25%▼ −0.34%$133.54 (+0.90%)
May 20, 2026
17d ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$134.25 $132.35▼ −1.42%▼ −1.86%$133.54 (−0.53%)
Showing 10 of 20

US Market Status

Market Closed — Opens Mon (12h 34m)

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