AAPL Apple Inc.

MIXED Impact: 1/10 ANALYST-UPGRADE
Processed 1mo ago SEC analyst-AAPL-bnpparib-20260417
BNP Paribas double upgrade: Neutral → Outperform
Latest settled — T+20d ⚠ clustered
AAPL ▲ +11.11% at T+20d
NEUTRAL call ✓ call won +11.11% · α vs SPY +7.04% · entry $270.16 → $300.17
Next anchor: T+60d in 27d
Currently $299.24 · +10.77% from $270.16 entry
Entry anchored
Apr 17, 09:49 AM ET
via Databento tick
T+1d
+1.06%
call +1.06% · α +1.25%
$273.03
settled 8w ago
T+5d
+0.30%
call +0.30% · α -0.26%
$270.96
settled 8w ago
T+20d
+11.11%
call +11.11% · α +7.04%
$300.17
settled 5w ago
T+60d
call — · α —
in 27d

Price Chart

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Executive Summary

BNP Paribas double-upgraded AAPL from Neutral to Outperform, setting a $300 price target ($300.23 current). The call is at current price, implying no material upside. BNP's accuracy is just 33% on 3 prior calls, among the lowest covering the stock. Consensus is heavily bullish at 72% Buy (39 of 54 analysts), with mean target $308.07. No other rating changes occurred in the prior 30 days, but EPS revisions have been strongly upward — the current fiscal year estimate rose 2.9% in 30 days. Countering the bullish rating, insider selling is heavy: Chairman Levinson sold $42.6M, CEO Cook $1.3M. Short interest is elevated at 58.5% of float. Norges Bank disclosed a new $52.3B position; Two Sigma added 47%. The next earnings are July 29, 2026, more than 60 days away. The bottom line: a low-credibility double upgrade with zero implied upside, contradicted by vigorous insider selling.

Impact Score

Base Score
1/7
LLM Adjustment
+0
Final Score
1/10

Consensus & Targets

Buy / Strong Buy
39 (72%)
Hold
13
Sell / Strong Sell
2
Total Analysts
43
Mean PT
$308.07
Median PT
$310.00
High PT
$400.00
Low PT
$215.00
Current Price
$300.23
Implied Upside
+2.6%

Of 54 analysts: 15 Strong Buy, 24 Buy, 13 Hold, 2 Sell, 0 Strong Sell. 72.2% Buy, 24.1% Hold, 3.7% Sell. Consensus is strongly bullish.

Mean target $308.07, median $310, high $400, low $215. Current $300.23 implies 2.6% upside to mean. BNP's $300 is below the mean and median and equal to the current price.

Recent Analyst Activity

DateFirmActionRatingPrice Target
2026-05-14 Tigress Financial maintain Strong Buy $375.00
2026-05-14 Evercore ISI Group maintain Outperform $365.00
2026-05-08 Wedbush maintain Outperform $400.00
2026-05-01 UBS maintain Neutral $296.00
2026-05-01 TD Cowen maintain Buy $335.00
2026-05-01 Wedbush reiterate Outperform $350.00
2026-05-01 Barclays maintain Underweight $253.00
2026-05-01 Wells Fargo maintain Overweight $310.00
2026-05-01 DA Davidson maintain Neutral $270.00
2026-05-01 Rosenblatt maintain Neutral $276.00

No upgrades or downgrades in the last 30 days. EPS revisions are overwhelmingly positive: 24 upward vs 0 downward in the last 7 days for the current quarter; 32 up vs 1 down for the fiscal year. Estimates are clearly being revised higher.

Firm Track Record — BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas accuracy: 33% on 3 calls | avg return: 2.9%

Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 15 firms with ≥5 scored calls.

FirmAccuracyCallsAvg Returnvs Average
Oppenheimer 100% 4/4 3.8% top tier
MoffettNathanson 100% 3/3 -2.2% top tier
Maxim Group 100% 4/4 14.2% top tier
Tigress Financial 100% 4/4 10.7% top tier
Melius Research 100% 5/5 14% top tier
UBS 83% 5/6 9.5% top tier
Jefferies 82% 9/11 3.5% top tier
Rosenblatt 80% 12/15 8.5% top tier
Wedbush 76% 19/25 10.2% top tier
Bernstein 75% 3/4 8.8% top tier

BNP Paribas has 33% accuracy on 3 rated calls with an average return of 2.9%. Top-tier firms include Oppenheimer (100% on 4), Melius Research (100% on 5), Rosenblatt (80% on 15), and Wedbush (76% on 25). BNP is at the bottom of the accuracy distribution.

Earnings Estimates

Next earnings: Jul 29, 2026

PeriodEPS Est.EPS RangeRevenueRevisions (7d)
0q $1.90 $1.83 — $1.99 $109.0B ↑24 ↓0
+1q $2.01 $1.86 — $2.14 $114.2B ↑20 ↓0
0y $8.74 $8.29 — $9.01 $477.9B ↑31 ↓0
+1y $9.63 $8.81 — $10.96 $516.6B ↑28 ↓0

Cross-Platform Signals

Insider Trades (90d)
0 buys / 5 sells
Congressional
Shelley Moore Capito (republican) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
John McGuire (republican) — buy $1,001 - $15,000
Congressional
Lizzie Fletcher (democrat) — sell $1,001 - $15,000
Institutional
NORGES BANK — new
Institutional
RENAISSANCE TECHNOLOGIES LLC — exit (-100%)
Institutional
TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP — add (47.3%)
Short Interest
Short: 11,896,972 | Exempt: 77,529 | TRF Vol: 20,322,725 | Short Ratio: 58.5% | Off-exchange volume (dark pool + OTC)

In the past month, insiders sold $44.8 million worth, including Chairman Arthur Levinson ($42.6M) and CEO Tim Cook ($1.3M). Congressional trades are mixed and small — one buy (McGuire, $1-$15k) and several sells under $15k. Institutions show divergence: Norges Bank opened a $52 position ($52) and Two Sigma added 47%, while Renaissance Technologies exited and Olstein Capital trimmed 38.5%. Short interest is high at 58.5% of float. The barrage. The insider selling significantly diverges from the bullish analyst signal.

Actionable Insight

The BNP Paribas double upgrade is a weak signal given low accuracy and a price target at current levels. The heavy insider selling and high short interest are cautionary. Wait for a clearer catalyst — a convergence of insider buying or a target well above consensus before adding exposure.

Documents Analyzed

Report based on filing metadata.

9 reports for AAPL
Performance horizon

Track record builds as more directional reports settle.

Filters
Rows
Reports for AAPL — sortable, filterable
Type Now
Jun 16, 2026
today
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 1/10
$270.23 $271.06▲ +0.31%▼ −0.23%$299.24 (+10.74%)
May 31, 2026
16d ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$258.72 $278.12▲ +7.50%▲ +7.63%$299.24 (+15.66%)
May 20, 2026
28d ago
Court Ruling
NEUTRAL ★ 1/10
$302.22 $310.85▲ +2.86%▲ +1.62%$299.24 (−0.98%)
May 17, 2026
4w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 1/10
$270.16 $270.96▲ +0.30%▼ −0.26%$299.24 (+10.77%)
May 6, 2026
6w ago
Insider Cluster
NEUTRAL ★ 2/10
$287.34 $294.80▲ +2.60%▲ +1.47%$299.24 (+4.14%)
May 1, 2026
6w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$258.72 $278.12▲ +7.50%▲ +7.63%$299.24 (+15.66%)
Apr 30, 2026
6w ago
8-K
BULLISH ★ 6/10
$280.03 $293.03▲ +4.64%▲ +2.30%$299.24 (+6.86%)
Apr 20, 2026
8w ago
8-K
NEUTRAL ★ 5/10
$266.09 $270.78▲ +1.76%▲ +0.68%$299.24 (+12.46%)
Apr 17, 2026
8w ago
ANALYST-UPGRADE
MIXED ★ 2/10
$270.16 $271.06▲ +0.33%▼ −0.22%$299.24 (+10.77%)
Showing 9 of 9

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