AAON AAON, INC.
Price Chart
Executive Summary
AAON received a cluster of five analyst actions on June 16, 2025, led by Sidoti & Co.'s upgrade from Neutral to Buy with a $95 price target. The stock currently trades at $140.47, implying 32% downside to Sidoti's target, a starkly contrarian call against a bullish consensus where 85% of analysts rate it Buy/Strong Buy. Sidoti's accuracy is 36% on 22 calls, well below the 63% of top-tier firm Baird. The consensus mean target is $143.50, median $150, with a high of $154 and low of $120. EPS revisions are strongly positive — 4 upward revisions in the last 7 days for the current fiscal year and next quarter, with no downgrades. Insider selling is heavy: $7.4M in sales over May 2026, including CEO Gary Fields ($2.97M) and CFO Matthew Tobolski ($1.08M). Institutional buying is robust, with Norges Bank initiating a $41.6M position and UBS adding 78.5%. Short interest is elevated at 58.2% of float, signaling bearish positioning. The upgrade from a low-accuracy firm with a target well below market price is a weak bullish signal, partially offset by strong earnings momentum and institutional inflows.
Impact Score
Consensus & Targets
Consensus is heavily bullish: 6 Strong Buy, 5 Buy, 2 Hold, 0 Sell, 0 Strong Sell — 85% Buy/Strong Buy from 13 analysts. Sidoti's upgrade aligns with the majority direction but its $95 target is far below the consensus mean of $143.50.
Current price: $140.47. Mean target: $143.50 (2.2% upside). Median: $150 (6.8% upside). High: $154 (9.6% upside). Low: $120 (14.6% downside). Sidoti's $95 target is 33% below the low end of consensus and 34% below the mean, making it the most bearish target on the street.
Recent Analyst Activity
| Date | Firm | Action | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-03 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | — |
| 2026-02-03 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $120.00 |
| 2025-10-14 | Oppenheimer | maintain | Outperform | $112.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $105.00 |
| 2025-08-12 | Baird | maintain | Buy | $98.00 |
| 2025-06-16 | Sidoti & Co. | upgrade | Buy | $95.00 |
| 2025-06-11 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $102.00 |
| 2025-05-02 | Baird | maintain | Outperform | $110.00 |
| 2025-02-28 | CJS Securities | upgrade | Market Outperform | $110.00 |
| 2025-02-28 | DA Davidson | maintain | Buy | $125.00 |
30-day analyst activity shows 0 upgrades and 0 downgrades, but EPS revisions are strongly positive: 4 upward revisions in the last 7 days for the current fiscal year and next quarter, with zero downward revisions. The current-year EPS estimate rose from $1.984 to $2.26 in 30 days (+13.9%). Estimates are being revised higher across all periods.
Firm Track Record — Sidoti & Co.
Sidoti & Co. accuracy: 36% on 22 calls | avg return: 8%
Industry benchmark: mean 51% ± 11%. Top tier: ≥61% (mean + 1σ). Based on 3 firms with ≥5 scored calls.
| Firm | Accuracy | Calls | Avg Return | vs Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baird | 63% | 5/8 | 9.1% | top tier |
| DA Davidson | 60% | 3/5 | 9.9% | above average |
| Sidoti & Co. | 50% | 1/2 | 21% | below average |
Sidoti & Co. has a 36% accuracy rate on 22 calls with an average return of 8%. This is below the peer average — Baird leads at 63% (8 calls, 9.1% avg return) and DA Davidson at 60% (5 calls, 9.9% avg return). Sidoti's small sample size (2 scored calls) limits reliability.
Earnings Estimates
| Period | EPS Est. | EPS Range | Revenue | Revisions (7d) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0y | $2.26 | $2.12 — $2.35 | $2.0B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1q | $0.66 | $0.62 — $0.69 | $513.4M | ↑4 ↓0 |
| +1y | $3.29 | $2.80 — $3.95 | $2.3B | ↑4 ↓0 |
| 0q | $0.49 | $0.46 — $0.52 | $485.5M | ↑2 ↓0 |
Cross-Platform Signals
Insider selling is heavy and concentrated: $7.4M in sales over May 2026, including CEO Fields ($2.97M) and CFO Tobolski ($1.08M). This diverges from the bullish analyst consensus. Institutional buying is strong — Norges Bank new $41.6M position, UBS +78.5%, Bank of America +46.1%. Short interest at 58.2% of float is extremely high, indicating bearish positioning that could fuel a squeeze. No congressional trades reported.
Actionable Insight
The Sidoti upgrade is a low-conviction signal from a below-average firm with a target 32% below market. The real story is the divergence between heavy insider selling and strong institutional buying, with elevated short interest. Traders should watch for a potential short squeeze if earnings momentum continues, but the insider sales warrant caution.
Documents Analyzed
Report based on filing metadata.
Track record builds as more directional reports settle.
Filters
| Type | Now | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Jun 8, 2026
1d ago
|
8-K
| $132.69 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $129.66 (−2.28%) |
|
Jun 5, 2026
4d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $137.32 awaiting T+5 | awaiting T+5 | — | $129.66 (−5.57%) |
|
Jun 1, 2026
8d ago
|
ANALYST-UPGRADE
| $73.45 $72.99 | ▼ −0.62% | ▼ −1.31% | $129.66 (+76.53%) |
|
May 27, 2026
13d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $139.54 $143.50 | ▲ +2.84% | ▲ +1.63% | $129.66 (−7.08%) |
|
May 27, 2026
13d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $139.54 $143.50 | ▲ +2.84% | ▲ +1.63% | $129.66 (−7.08%) |
|
May 18, 2026
22d ago
|
8-K
| $133.94 $141.12 | ▲ +5.36% | ▲ +3.74% | $129.66 (−3.20%) |
|
May 15, 2026
25d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $135.49 $134.60 | ▼ −0.66% | ▼ −1.62% | $129.66 (−4.30%) |
|
May 13, 2026
27d ago
|
Insider Cluster
| $140.00 $132.39 | ▼ −5.44% | ▼ −4.72% | $129.66 (−7.39%) |
|
May 13, 2026
27d ago
|
144
| $135.37 $133.76 | ▼ −1.19% | ▼ −1.05% | $129.66 (−4.22%) |
|
May 7, 2026
4w ago
|
8-K
| $129.25 $135.37 | ▲ +4.74% | ▲ +3.23% | $129.66 (+0.32%) |
US Market Status
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